PoliticsHistorical demonstration · not current evidence+0 pts · historical movement Will national election turnout exceed the prior election?58%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 51% to 58%.Closes Dec 31, 20264,200 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
PoliticsHistorical demonstration · not current evidence+0 pts · historical movement Will the digital transparency bill pass this year?46%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 39% to 46%.Closes Dec 31, 20264,103 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
PoliticsHistorical demonstration · not current evidence-1 pts · historical movement Will a major cabinet reshuffle occur before year-end?37%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 31% to 37%.Closes Dec 31, 20264,006 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
EconomyHistorical demonstration · not current evidence+0 pts · historical movement Will the benchmark interest rate be lower by year-end?64%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 57% to 64%.Closes Dec 31, 20263,909 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
EconomyHistorical demonstration · not current evidence+0 pts · historical movement Will headline inflation finish below 3%?55%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 48% to 55%.Closes Jan 31, 20273,812 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
EconomyHistorical demonstration · not current evidence-1 pts · historical movement Will global growth exceed the current baseline forecast?41%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 35% to 41%.Closes Apr 30, 20273,715 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
TechnologyHistorical demonstration · not current evidence+0 pts · historical movement Will a new frontier AI model lead public benchmarks this quarter?72%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 65% to 72%.Closes Sep 30, 20263,618 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
TechnologyHistorical demonstration · not current evidence+0 pts · historical movement Will a driverless taxi service open in a new major city this year?61%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 54% to 61%.Closes Dec 31, 20263,521 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
TechnologyHistorical demonstration · not current evidence-1 pts · historical movement Will next-generation chips ship at scale before December?49%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 43% to 49%.Closes Nov 30, 20263,424 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
SportsAwaiting resolution · closed Jul 19, 2026-13 pts · historical movement Will Spain win the 2026 World Cup?6%probabilityModerate confidence
Probability moved from 12% to 6%.Closes Jul 19, 20263,327 activity3 signalsModerate confidence
SportsAwaiting resolution · closed Jul 19, 2026-9 pts · historical movement Will a European team win the 2026 World Cup?47%probabilityHigh confidence
Probability moved from 50% to 47%.Closes Jul 19, 20263,230 activity3 signalsHigh confidence
SportsHistorical demonstration · not current evidence-1 pts · historical movement Will the championship scoring record be broken this season?33%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 27% to 33%.Closes Jun 30, 20273,133 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
CryptoHistorical demonstration · not current evidence+0 pts · historical movement Will Bitcoin set a new annual high before year-end?62%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 55% to 62%.Closes Dec 31, 20263,036 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
CryptoHistorical demonstration · not current evidence+0 pts · historical movement Will crypto ETF net flows stay positive this quarter?54%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 47% to 54%.Closes Sep 30, 20262,939 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
CryptoHistorical demonstration · not current evidence-1 pts · historical movement Will stablecoin supply grow by more than 10% this year?68%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 62% to 68%.Closes Dec 31, 20262,842 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
CultureHistorical demonstration · not current evidence+0 pts · historical movement Will the year's top film exceed the prior year's box office leader?44%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 37% to 44%.Closes Jan 31, 20272,745 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
CultureHistorical demonstration · not current evidence+0 pts · historical movement Which release format will win the top drama award?52%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 45% to 52%.Closes Mar 31, 20272,648 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
CultureHistorical demonstration · not current evidence-1 pts · historical movement Will the highest-grossing tour announce additional dates?66%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 60% to 66%.Closes Dec 31, 20262,551 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
ScienceHistorical demonstration · not current evidence+0 pts · historical movement Will the scheduled lunar mission launch in its current window?71%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 64% to 71%.Closes Dec 31, 20262,454 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
ScienceHistorical demonstration · not current evidence+0 pts · historical movement Will this year rank among the three warmest recorded?82%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 75% to 82%.Closes Mar 31, 20272,357 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
ScienceHistorical demonstration · not current evidence-1 pts · historical movement Will a late-stage treatment meet its primary endpoint?48%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 42% to 48%.Closes Jun 30, 20272,260 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
WorldHistorical demonstration · not current evidence+0 pts · historical movement Will a monitored ceasefire remain in place for 90 days?39%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 32% to 39%.Closes Dec 31, 20262,163 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
WorldHistorical demonstration · not current evidence+0 pts · historical movement Will a major new trade agreement be signed this year?43%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 36% to 43%.Closes Dec 31, 20262,066 activity3 signalsDemonstration only
WorldHistorical demonstration · not current evidence+0 pts · historical movement Will global renewable additions set a new annual record?76%probabilityEvidence not production-verified
Probability moved from 70% to 76%.Closes Jun 30, 20271,969 activity3 signalsDemonstration only