ProbabilityGridMarket intelligence
technologyactiveStale · last verified Jul 11, 2026, 6:00 AM

Will a new frontier AI model lead public benchmarks this quarter?

A structured technology forecast with separate model, demo crowd, and virtual-market signals.

Event: Will a new frontier AI model lead public benchmarks this quarter
72%combined probability+0 pts historical movement
Probability moved from 65% to 72%.
Signal confidence
Moderate confidence
Last model update
Jul 11, 2026, 6:00 AM
Market closes
Sep 30, 2026, 11:59 PM
Forecast outcomes

Yes or no

Published baseline; scenario adjustments do not overwrite this estimate.

Yes
72%
No
28%
Signal provenance

How the estimate is built

medium confidence
Platform modelEditorial demo factor model
72%medium · n=1
Demo crowd sampleSeeded demo crowd sample
68%medium · n=240
Virtual marketSeeded demo virtual market
75%medium · n=180
Combined probabilityConfidence-weighted log-odds estimate
72%published baseline
Personal scenario

Test what could move the probability

Published baseline72%
Your scenario72%
Difference+0 pts
Model drivers

Factors to test

Evidence strength

Increase when independent, category-appropriate evidence supports the leading outcome.

Impact strength 34
Timing and execution

Adjust for schedule risk, implementation delays, or accelerating momentum.

Impact strength 22
3 markets