ProbabilityGridMarket intelligence
economyactiveStale · last verified Jul 11, 2026, 6:00 AM

Will the benchmark interest rate be lower by year-end?

A structured economy forecast with separate model, demo crowd, and virtual-market signals.

Event: Will the benchmark interest rate be lower by year-end
64%combined probability+0 pts historical movement
Probability moved from 57% to 64%.
Signal confidence
Moderate confidence
Last model update
Jul 11, 2026, 6:00 AM
Market closes
Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM
Forecast outcomes

Yes or no

Published baseline; scenario adjustments do not overwrite this estimate.

Yes
64%
No
36%
Signal provenance

How the estimate is built

medium confidence
Platform modelEditorial demo factor model
64%medium · n=1
Demo crowd sampleSeeded demo crowd sample
60%medium · n=240
Virtual marketSeeded demo virtual market
67%medium · n=180
Combined probabilityConfidence-weighted log-odds estimate
64%published baseline
Personal scenario

Test what could move the probability

Published baseline64%
Your scenario64%
Difference+0 pts
Model drivers

Factors to test

Evidence strength

Increase when independent, category-appropriate evidence supports the leading outcome.

Impact strength 34
Timing and execution

Adjust for schedule risk, implementation delays, or accelerating momentum.

Impact strength 22
3 markets
EconomyStale · last verified Jul 11, 2026+0 pts · historical movement
Will headline inflation finish below 3%?
55%probabilityModerate confidence
Probability moved from 48% to 55%.
Closes Jan 31, 20273,812 activity3 signalsModerate confidence