ProbabilityGridMarket intelligence
worldactiveStale · last verified Jul 11, 2026, 6:00 AM

Will global renewable additions set a new annual record?

A structured world forecast with separate model, demo crowd, and virtual-market signals.

Event: Will global renewable additions set a new annual record
76%combined probability+0 pts historical movement
Probability moved from 70% to 76%.
Signal confidence
Moderate confidence
Last model update
Jul 11, 2026, 6:00 AM
Market closes
Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM
Forecast outcomes

Yes or no

Published baseline; scenario adjustments do not overwrite this estimate.

Yes
76%
No
24%
Signal provenance

How the estimate is built

medium confidence
Platform modelEditorial demo factor model
76%medium · n=1
Demo crowd sampleSeeded demo crowd sample
72%medium · n=240
Virtual marketSeeded demo virtual market
79%medium · n=180
Combined probabilityConfidence-weighted log-odds estimate
76%published baseline
Personal scenario

Test what could move the probability

Published baseline76%
Your scenario76%
Difference+0 pts
Model drivers

Factors to test

Evidence strength

Increase when independent, category-appropriate evidence supports the leading outcome.

Impact strength 34
Timing and execution

Adjust for schedule risk, implementation delays, or accelerating momentum.

Impact strength 22
3 markets