ProbabilityGridMarket intelligence
sportsactiveStale · last verified Jul 11, 2026, 6:00 AM

Will a European team win the 2026 World Cup?

A structured sports forecast with separate model, demo crowd, and virtual-market signals.

Event: Will a European team win the 2026 World Cup
47%combined probability-9 pts historical movement
Probability moved from 50% to 47%.
Signal confidence
High confidence
Last model update
Jul 11, 2026, 6:00 AM
Market closes
Jul 19, 2026, 11:59 PM
Forecast outcomes

Yes or no

Published baseline; scenario adjustments do not overwrite this estimate.

Yes
47%
No
53%
Signal provenance

How the estimate is built

high confidence
Platform modelEditorial demo factor model
47%high · n=1
Demo crowd sampleSeeded demo crowd sample
47%medium · n=240
Virtual marketSeeded demo virtual market
47%medium · n=180
Combined probabilityConfidence-weighted log-odds estimate
47%published baseline
Personal scenario

Test what could move the probability

Published baseline47%
Your scenario47%
Difference+0 pts
Model drivers

Factors to test

Evidence strength

Increase when independent, category-appropriate evidence supports the leading outcome.

Impact strength 34
Timing and execution

Adjust for schedule risk, implementation delays, or accelerating momentum.

Impact strength 22
3 markets
SportsStale · last verified Jul 11, 2026-13 pts · historical movement
Will Spain win the 2026 World Cup?
6%probabilityModerate confidence
Probability moved from 12% to 6%.
Closes Jul 19, 20263,327 activity3 signalsModerate confidence