ProbabilityGridMarket intelligence
politicsactiveStale · last verified Jul 11, 2026, 6:00 AM

Will a major cabinet reshuffle occur before year-end?

A structured politics forecast with separate model, demo crowd, and virtual-market signals.

Event: Will a major cabinet reshuffle occur before year-end
37%combined probability-1 pts historical movement
Probability moved from 31% to 37%.
Signal confidence
Moderate confidence
Last model update
Jul 11, 2026, 6:00 AM
Market closes
Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM
Forecast outcomes

Yes or no

Published baseline; scenario adjustments do not overwrite this estimate.

Yes
37%
No
63%
Signal provenance

How the estimate is built

medium confidence
Platform modelEditorial demo factor model
37%medium · n=1
Demo crowd sampleSeeded demo crowd sample
33%medium · n=240
Virtual marketSeeded demo virtual market
40%medium · n=180
Combined probabilityConfidence-weighted log-odds estimate
37%published baseline
Personal scenario

Test what could move the probability

Published baseline37%
Your scenario37%
Difference+0 pts
Model drivers

Factors to test

Evidence strength

Increase when independent, category-appropriate evidence supports the leading outcome.

Impact strength 34
Timing and execution

Adjust for schedule risk, implementation delays, or accelerating momentum.

Impact strength 22
3 markets