ProbabilityGridMarket intelligence
scienceactiveStale · last verified Jul 11, 2026, 6:00 AM

Will a late-stage treatment meet its primary endpoint?

A structured science forecast with separate model, demo crowd, and virtual-market signals.

Event: Will a late-stage treatment meet its primary endpoint
48%combined probability-1 pts historical movement
Probability moved from 42% to 48%.
Signal confidence
High confidence
Last model update
Jul 11, 2026, 6:00 AM
Market closes
Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM
Forecast outcomes

Yes or no

Published baseline; scenario adjustments do not overwrite this estimate.

Yes
48%
No
52%
Signal provenance

How the estimate is built

high confidence
Platform modelEditorial demo factor model
48%high · n=1
Demo crowd sampleSeeded demo crowd sample
44%medium · n=240
Virtual marketSeeded demo virtual market
51%medium · n=180
Combined probabilityConfidence-weighted log-odds estimate
48%published baseline
Personal scenario

Test what could move the probability

Published baseline48%
Your scenario48%
Difference+0 pts
Model drivers

Factors to test

Evidence strength

Increase when independent, category-appropriate evidence supports the leading outcome.

Impact strength 34
Timing and execution

Adjust for schedule risk, implementation delays, or accelerating momentum.

Impact strength 22
3 markets