Jul 54:00 PM ET
BRABrazil2 - 1NORNorway
BRA win45.7%
Draw27.4%
NOR win26.9%
xG BRA 1.4xG NOR 0.9
Brazil carries the model edge from Elo rating, form, and attack-defense balance. Elo gap: 97.
balanced confidenceFixture source
World Cup match predictions
90-minute win, draw, loss probabilities and score forecasts for every known upcoming match in the current tournament snapshot.
Known fixtures7
Teams covered14
Field Elo avg1784
Snapshot2026-07-05
Jul 5 · Round of 16
Brazil vs Norway
Brazil carries the model edge from Elo rating, form, and attack-defense balance. Elo gap: 97.
BRABrazil2 - 1NORNorway
Fixture forecast board
Probabilities are listed from the first team's 90-minute perspective.
Jul 58:00 PM ET
MEXMexico1 - 2ENGEngland
MEX win26.4%
Draw27.3%
ENG win46.3%
xG MEX 0.8xG ENG 1.5
England carries the model edge from Elo rating, form, and attack-defense balance. Elo gap: 103.
medium confidenceFixture source
Jul 63:00 PM ET
PORPortugal1 - 2ESPSpain
POR win22.9%
Draw26.2%
ESP win50.9%
xG POR 0.7xG ESP 1.6
Spain carries the model edge from Elo rating, form, and attack-defense balance. Elo gap: 146.
medium confidenceFixture source
Jul 68:00 PM ET
USAUSA1 - 2BELBelgium
USA win25.6%
Draw27.1%
BEL win47.3%
xG USA 0.8xG BEL 1.5
Belgium carries the model edge from Elo rating, form, and attack-defense balance. Elo gap: 112.
medium confidenceFixture source
Jul 712:00 PM ET
ARGArgentina3 - 0EGYEgypt
ARG win72.8%
Draw19.3%
EGY win7.9%
xG ARG 2.5xG EGY 0.4
Argentina carries the model edge from Elo rating, form, and attack-defense balance. Elo gap: 406.
high confidenceFixture source
Jul 74:00 PM ET
SUISwitzerland1 - 2COLColombia
SUI win29.9%
Draw28.4%
COL win41.7%
xG SUI 1.0xG COL 1.3
Colombia carries the model edge from Elo rating, form, and attack-defense balance. Elo gap: 61.
balanced confidenceFixture source
TBDTBD
FRAFrance2 - 0MARMorocco
FRA win60.9%
Draw23.5%
MAR win15.6%
xG FRA 2.0xG MAR 0.4
France carries the model edge from Elo rating, form, and attack-defense balance. Elo gap: 248.
high confidenceFixture source
Model notes
This page uses the same source-backed team pool and Elo inputs as the simulator, then converts each matchup into a neutral-site 90-minute probability split. Knockout advancement after a draw is not treated as a draw result.