World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotPanamaPAN

Rank#34baseline #34

Elo1658#35

Champion1.3%baseline 1.3%

Leader gap4.1%

Final4.6%baseline 4.6%

Group advance58.1%baseline 58.1%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 77Scenario 80.8

Defense+1.5

Base 77Scenario 78.5

Form0

Base 77Scenario 77

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

MidfieldersSan Diego FC

Aníbal GodoyProfileCaptain and midfield shield

Godoy gives Panama leadership, ball-winning structure, and calm distribution after defensive regains.

MidfieldersUNAM Pumas

Adalberto CarrasquillaProfileProgressive midfield creator

Carrasquilla links Panama's midfield with carries, pressure resistance, and passes into the front line.

DefendersNorwich City

José CórdobaProfileCentral defensive anchor

Córdoba gives Panama speed, aerial defending, and composure in the centre of the back line.

ForwardsUniversidad de Concepción

Cecilio WatermanProfilePenalty-box forward

Waterman adds box movement, finishing touch, and pressing work when Panama attack directly.

ForwardsCD Universidad Católica

José FajardoProfileDirect striker

Fajardo stretches defensive lines with runs behind and gives Panama a vertical outlet for counters.

GoalkeepersAl-Fayha FC

Orlando MosqueraProfileShot-stopping goalkeeper

Mosquera gives Panama reaction saves and box command when opponents sustain pressure.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Orlando MosqueraAl-Fayha FCCésar SamudioCD MarathónLuis MejíaClub Nacional

Defenders

José CórdobaNorwich CityAndrés AndradeLASKEdgardo FariñaFC Pari Nizhniy NovgorodJiovany RamosAcademia Puerto CabelloFidel EscobarDeportivo SaprissaRoderick MillerTuran-Tovuz IKJorge GutiérrezDeportivo La GuairaÉric DavisCD Plaza AmadorAmir MurilloBesiktas JKCésar BlackmanSlovan Bratislava

Midfielders

Cristian MartínezIroni Kiryat ShmonaCarlos HarveyMinnesota United FCAníbal GodoySan Diego FCAdalberto CarrasquillaUNAM Pumas

Forwards

José Luis RodríguezFC JuárezIsmael DíazClub León FCYoel BárcenasMazatlán FCCésar YanisCD CobresalAlberto QuinteroCD Plaza AmadorTomás RodríguezDeportivo SaprissaAzarías LondoñoCD Universidad CatólicaJosé FajardoCD Universidad CatólicaCecilio WatermanUniversidad de Concepción

SourcesWikipedia Panama 2026 squad template Transfermarkt Panama detailed squad positions, profiles, and photos Wikidata, Transfermarkt, and public social identifiers

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.1%

Sleepers22 teams40.5%Selected team

Long shots12 teams5.8%

#	Elo
5	2046#4	4%	12.7%	21%	34.6%	57.2%	94.3%
14	1882#16	3%	9.8%	16.8%	29%	50.1%	86.5%
34	1658#35	1.3%	4.6%	8.6%	16.2%	30.5%	58.1%
43	1575#41	0.4%	1.7%	3.4%	6.9%	14.3%	30%

Knockout pathPanama

Round of 32vs Japan34.1%
Win in 90 min 24.6%Reach stage 58.1%
Round of 16vs Colombia28.3%
Win in 90 min 20.4%Reach stage 30.5%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil25%
Win in 90 min 18%Reach stage 16.2%
Semi-finalvs Spain17.7%
Win in 90 min 12.7%Reach stage 8.6%
Finalvs Argentina16.5%
Win in 90 min 11.9%Reach stage 4.6%

Champion1.3%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance58.1%

Round of 1630.5%

Quarter-final16.2%

Semi-final8.6%

Final4.6%

Champion1.3%

Group L outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 1.3%current 1.3%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 4.6%current 4.6%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 58.1%current 58.1%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

Panama34.3%AdvancevsArgentina65.7%Opponent advance

90 min win 29.2%90 min draw 14.9%90 min loss 55.9%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico43%31%19%91%

Korea Republic24%28%28%70%

Czechia21%26%30%64%

South Africa12%16%23%35%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%15%95%

Canada25%32%29%76%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%

Qatar8%12%21%25%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil46%32%17%95%

Morocco28%32%27%83%

Scotland17%23%33%60%

Haiti9%13%22%30%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany39%33%22%91%

Ecuador34%33%24%88%

Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%

Curacao8%11%19%24%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands40%32%20%92%

Japan31%32%25%85%

Sweden19%23%32%62%

Tunisia10%13%22%31%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium39%31%21%88%

IR Iran29%30%27%78%

Egypt21%25%30%63%

New Zealand11%14%22%32%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%96%

Norway28%33%28%86%

Senegal18%24%36%67%

Iraq7%11%20%25%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England44%32%18%94%

Croatia31%33%25%86%

Panama16%22%34%58%

Ghana9%13%23%30%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03