Harry KaneProfileCaptain and central finisher
Kane remains England's reference point, linking midfield possession with penalty-box finishing and late-game control.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotEnglandENG
Rank#4baseline #4
Elo2046#4
Champion4.5%baseline 4.5%
Leader gap0.9%
Final14%baseline 14%
Group advance96.2%baseline 96.2%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 91Scenario 94.8
Defense+1.5
Base 91Scenario 92.5
Form0
Base 91Scenario 91
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Jude BellinghamProfileTwo-way midfield star
Bellingham gives England ball-carrying power, box arrivals, and the duel intensity to tilt knockout matches from midfield.
Bukayo SakaProfileRight-wing creator
Saka stretches England's right side with one-on-one threat, combination play, and reliable end product against deep blocks.
Declan RiceProfileMidfield security anchor
Rice protects transition space, wins second balls, and gives England the passing base to keep territorial pressure.
Marc GuéhiProfileCentre-back organiser
Guéhi adds recovery speed, clean first passes, and calm defensive organisation next to a flexible England back line.
Jordan PickfordProfileTournament goalkeeper
Pickford brings tournament experience, long distribution, and penalty-box command to settle England's defensive phases.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Dean HendersonCrystal PalaceJames TraffordManchester CityJordan PickfordEverton FC
Defenders
Marc GuéhiManchester CityJarell QuansahBayer 04 LeverkusenEzri KonsaAston VillaTrevoh ChalobahChelsea FCJohn StonesWithout ClubDan BurnNewcastle UnitedNico O'ReillyManchester CityDjed SpenceTottenham HotspurReece JamesChelsea FC
Midfielders
Jordan HendersonBrentford FCDeclan RiceArsenal FCElliot AndersonManchester CityKobbie MainooManchester UnitedJude BellinghamReal MadridMorgan RogersAston VillaEberechi EzeArsenal FC
Forwards
Anthony GordonFC BarcelonaMarcus RashfordManchester UnitedBukayo SakaArsenal FCNoni MaduekeArsenal FCHarry KaneBayern MunichOllie WatkinsAston VillaIvan ToneyAl-Ahli SFC
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders12 teams43.6%Selected team
Sleepers22 teams40%
Long shots12 teams5.8%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2046#4 | 4.5% | 14% | 22.7% | 36.8% | 59.7% | 96.2% | |
| 13 | 1882#16 | 3% | 9.9% | 17% | 29.3% | 50.5% | 87.3% | |
| 36 | 1658#35 | 1% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 13.2% | 25.6% | 50.1% | |
| 43 | 1575#41 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 7.1% | 14.6% | 30.7% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%63%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%64%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%41%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%68%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England49%32%15%96%
Croatia29%35%25%87%
Panama13%19%34%50%
Ghana9%13%25%31%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.