World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotCroatiaCRO

Rank#10baseline #10

Elo1882#16

Champion3.5%baseline 3.5%

Leader gap1.9%

Final11.4%baseline 11.4%

Group advance91.8%baseline 91.8%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 85Scenario 88.8

Defense+1.5

Base 85Scenario 86.5

Form0

Base 85Scenario 85

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

MidfieldersAC Milan

Luka ModrićProfileCaptain and tempo setter

Modrić still gives Croatia control through press resistance, passing rhythm, and late-game decision quality.

DefendersManchester City

Joško GvardiolProfileLeft-sided defensive pillar

Gvardiol anchors Croatia's left side with recovery speed, ball progression, and centre-back cover when the line steps up.

MidfieldersManchester City

Mateo KovačićProfilePress-breaking midfielder

Kovačić turns pressure into possession by carrying through midfield and connecting Croatia's older and younger creators.

ForwardsPSV Eindhoven

Ivan PerišićProfileWide tournament specialist

Perišić gives Croatia crossing volume, back-post timing, and a trusted big-match option across both wide lanes.

ForwardsTSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Andrej KramarićProfileFlexible final-third scorer

Kramarić can play between lines or lead the front, adding finishing touch and combination play around Croatia's midfielders.

GoalkeepersFenerbahce

Dominik LivakovićProfileKnockout-tested goalkeeper

Livaković brings penalty-box calm, tournament experience, and the shot-stopping base Croatia need in tight ties.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Dominik KotarskiFC CopenhagenIvor PandurRangers FCDominik LivakovićFenerbahce

Defenders

Joško GvardiolManchester CityLuka VuškovićTottenham HotspurJosip ŠutaloAjax AmsterdamMarin PongračićACF FiorentinaMartin ErlićFC MidtjyllandDuje Ćaleta-CarOlympique LyonJosip StanišićBayern Munich

Midfielders

Nikola MoroBologna FC 1909Kristijan JakićFC AugsburgPetar SučićInter MilanMateo KovačićManchester CityLuka SučićReal SociedadMario PašalićAtalanta BCLuka ModrićAC MilanMartin BaturinaComo 1907Nikola VlašićTorino FCToni FrukHNK Rijeka

Forwards

Ivan PerišićPSV EindhovenMarco PašalićOrlando City SCAndrej KramarićTSG 1899 HoffenheimIgor MatanovićSC FreiburgPetar MusaFC DallasAnte BudimirCA Osasuna

SourcesFIFA Croatia World Cup squad announcement Wikipedia Croatia 2026 squad template Transfermarkt Croatia 2026 squad positions and clubs Wikidata, Wikimedia Commons, Transfermarkt, and public social identifiers Petar Sučić social-media statement

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.6%Selected team

Sleepers22 teams40%

Long shots12 teams5.8%

#	Elo
5	2046#4	4%	12.7%	21%	34.7%	57.4%	94.5%
10	1882#16	3.5%	11.4%	19.1%	32.3%	54.4%	91.8%
36	1658#35	1%	3.5%	6.8%	13.1%	25.3%	49.7%
43	1575#41	0.4%	1.7%	3.4%	7%	14.5%	30.4%

Knockout pathCroatia

Round of 32vs Morocco57.8%
Win in 90 min 41.6%Reach stage 91.8%
Round of 16vs Colombia48.9%
Win in 90 min 35.2%Reach stage 54.4%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil44.8%
Win in 90 min 32.3%Reach stage 32.3%
Semi-finalvs Spain34.3%
Win in 90 min 24.7%Reach stage 19.1%
Finalvs Argentina32.4%
Win in 90 min 23.3%Reach stage 11.4%

Champion3.5%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance91.8%

Round of 1654.4%

Quarter-final32.3%

Semi-final19.1%

Final11.4%

Champion3.5%

Group L outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 3.5%current 3.5%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 11.4%current 11.4%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 91.8%current 91.8%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

Croatia39.9%AdvancevsArgentina60.1%Opponent advance

90 min win 32.7%90 min draw 18%90 min loss 49.3%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico43%31%19%91%

Korea Republic24%28%28%70%

Czechia21%26%30%64%

South Africa12%16%23%35%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%15%95%

Canada25%32%29%76%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%

Qatar8%12%21%25%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil46%32%17%95%

Morocco28%32%27%83%

Scotland17%23%33%60%

Haiti9%13%22%30%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany39%33%22%91%

Ecuador34%33%24%88%

Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%

Curacao8%11%19%24%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands40%32%20%92%

Japan31%32%25%85%

Sweden19%23%32%62%

Tunisia10%13%22%31%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium39%31%21%88%

IR Iran29%30%27%78%

Egypt21%25%30%64%

New Zealand11%14%22%32%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%96%

Norway28%33%28%86%

Senegal18%24%36%68%

Iraq7%11%20%25%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England42%34%18%95%

Croatia36%35%22%92%

Panama13%18%35%50%

Ghana9%13%25%30%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03