World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotUzbekistanUZB

Rank#37baseline #37

Elo1631#36

Champion0.8%baseline 0.8%

Leader gap4.6%

Final3%baseline 3%

Group advance42.6%baseline 42.6%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 76Scenario 79.8

Defense+1.5

Base 76Scenario 77.5

Form0

Base 76Scenario 76

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

ForwardsBasaksehir FK

Eldor ShomurodovProfileCaptain and central striker

Shomurodov gives Uzbekistan a reference point for hold-up play, pressing, and penalty-box finishing.

DefendersManchester City

Abdukodir KhusanovProfilePremier defensive prospect

Khusanov brings recovery speed, aerial power, and composure against elite tournament forwards.

ForwardsBasaksehir FK

Abbosbek FayzullaevProfileRight-side creator

Fayzullaev gives Uzbekistan dribbling, final passes, and quick combinations from the right channel.

ForwardsPersepolis FC

Oston UrunovProfileWide ball carrier

Urunov stretches matches with carries from the left and direct runs into open space.

GoalkeepersNavbahor Namangan

Utkir YusupovProfileGoalkeeping organizer

Yusupov gives Uzbekistan experience, box command, and first-pass security under pressure.

MidfieldersWithout Club

Otabek ShukurovProfileMidfield tempo setter

Shukurov balances Uzbekistan with ball circulation, tackling, and decisions after regains.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Abduvokhid NematovNasaf QarshiUtkir YusupovNavbahor NamanganBotirali ErgashevNeftchi Fergana

Defenders

Abdukodir KhusanovManchester CityRustam AshurmatovEsteghlal FCJakhongir UrozovDinamo SamarqandAvazbek UlmasalievFC OKMK OlmaliqUmar EshmurodovNasaf QarshiSherzod NasrullaevPakhtakor TashkentFarrukh SayfievNeftchi FerganaKhozhiakbar AlizhonovPakhtakor TashkentBekhruz KarimovSurkhon Termiz

Midfielders

Odildzhon KhamrobekovTractor FCAbdulla AbdullaevDibba SCCAziz GanievAl-Bataeh CSCOtabek ShukurovWithout ClubAkmal MozgovoyPakhtakor TashkentSherzod EsanovFC BuxoroJamshid IskanderovNeftchi Fergana

Forwards

Oston UrunovPersepolis FCRuslanbek JiyanovNavbahor NamanganAbbosbek FayzullaevBasaksehir FKDostonbek KhamdamovPakhtakor TashkentEldor ShomurodovBasaksehir FKIgor SergeevPersepolis FCAzizbek AmanovDinamo Samarqand

SourcesWikipedia Uzbekistan 2026 squad template Transfermarkt Uzbekistan detailed squad positions, profiles, and photos Wikidata, Transfermarkt, and public social identifiers

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.1%

Sleepers22 teams40.2%

Long shots12 teams6.1%Selected team

#	Elo
6	2013#6	3.7%	11.8%	19.7%	32.8%	54.6%	90.9%
9	2004#7	3.5%	11.3%	19%	31.8%	53.4%	89.5%
34	1704#33	1.1%	4%	7.6%	14.3%	27%	51.6%
37	1631#36	0.8%	3%	5.8%	11.2%	21.7%	42.6%

Knockout pathUzbekistan

Round of 32vs Japan29.7%
Win in 90 min 21.4%Reach stage 42.6%
Round of 16vs Switzerland26.2%
Win in 90 min 18.9%Reach stage 21.7%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil21.4%
Win in 90 min 15.4%Reach stage 11.2%
Semi-finalvs Spain14.9%
Win in 90 min 10.7%Reach stage 5.8%
Finalvs Argentina13.9%
Win in 90 min 10%Reach stage 3%

Champion0.8%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance42.6%

Round of 1621.7%

Quarter-final11.2%

Semi-final5.8%

Final3%

Champion0.8%

Group K outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 0.8%current 0.8%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 3%current 3%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 42.6%current 42.6%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

Uzbekistan33.6%AdvancevsArgentina66.4%Opponent advance

90 min win 28.6%90 min draw 14.9%90 min loss 56.5%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico43%31%19%91%

Korea Republic24%28%28%70%

Czechia21%26%30%64%

South Africa12%16%23%35%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%15%95%

Canada25%32%29%76%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%

Qatar8%12%21%25%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil46%32%17%95%

Morocco28%32%27%83%

Scotland17%23%33%60%

Haiti9%13%22%30%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany39%33%22%91%

Ecuador34%33%24%88%

Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%

Curacao8%11%19%24%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands40%32%20%92%

Japan31%32%25%85%

Sweden19%23%32%62%

Tunisia10%13%22%31%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium39%31%21%88%

IR Iran29%30%27%78%

Egypt21%25%30%64%

New Zealand11%14%22%32%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%96%

Norway28%33%28%86%

Senegal18%24%36%67%

Iraq7%11%20%25%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal37%32%21%91%

Colombia35%32%22%90%

Congo DR15%19%30%52%

Uzbekistan13%16%26%43%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England45%33%17%95%

Croatia32%34%24%88%

Panama14%20%34%51%

Ghana9%13%25%32%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03