Cristiano RonaldoProfileCaptain and historic scorer
Ronaldo remains Portugal's emotional and penalty-box reference, setting the finishing standard for a squad loaded with creators.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotPortugalPOR
Rank#4baseline #4
Elo2013#6
Champion4.2%baseline 4.2%
Leader gap1.2%
Final13.2%baseline 13.2%
Group advance93.9%baseline 93.9%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 90Scenario 93.8
Defense+1.5
Base 90Scenario 91.5
Form0
Base 90Scenario 90
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Diogo CostaProfileModern No. 1 goalkeeper
Costa gives Portugal a high-level shot stopper who can also start attacks with calm passing under tournament pressure.
Rúben DiasProfileDefensive organiser
Dias anchors the centre-backs with command, duel strength, and the organisation Portugal need when their full-backs advance.
Bruno FernandesProfileFinal-third accelerator
Fernandes speeds up Portugal's attack with early vertical passes, late box runs, and set-piece delivery around Ronaldo.
Bernardo SilvaProfileControl-side creator
Bernardo gives Portugal tempo control, press resistance, and disguised combinations from the right half-space.
Rafael LeãoProfileLeft-wing transition threat
Leão adds the burst Portugal need to turn settled possession into open-field chances and isolate defenders on the left.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Diogo CostaFC PortoRui SilvaSporting CPJosé SáWolverhampton Wanderers
Defenders
Rúben DiasManchester CityGonçalo InácioSporting CPTomás AraújoSL BenficaRenato VeigaVillarreal CFNuno MendesParis Saint-GermainMatheus NunesManchester CityDiogo DalotManchester UnitedJoão CanceloAl-Hilal SFCNélson SemedoFenerbahce
Midfielders
VitinhaParis Saint-GermainRúben NevesAl-Hilal SFCSamú CostaRCD MallorcaJoão NevesParis Saint-GermainFrancisco TrincãoSporting CPBruno FernandesManchester UnitedBernardo SilvaReal Madrid
Forwards
Rafael LeãoAC MilanGonçalo GuedesReal SociedadPedro NetoChelsea FCFrancisco ConceiçãoJuventus FCJoão FélixAl-Nassr FCGonçalo RamosAC MilanCristiano RonaldoAl-Nassr FC
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders12 teams43.5%Selected team
Sleepers22 teams40%
Long shots12 teams5.9%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2013#6 | 4.2% | 13.2% | 21.6% | 35.3% | 57.7% | 93.9% | |
| 8 | 2004#7 | 3.6% | 11.4% | 19.1% | 32.1% | 53.8% | 90.3% | |
| 34 | 1704#33 | 1.2% | 4.1% | 7.7% | 14.6% | 27.6% | 52.8% | |
| 39 | 1631#36 | 0.6% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 8.7% | 17.4% | 35.2% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%63%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%64%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%41%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%68%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal42%33%19%94%
Colombia34%34%23%90%
Congo DR14%19%33%53%
Uzbekistan10%14%25%35%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.