Chancel MbembaProfileCaptain and defensive anchor
Mbemba anchors Congo DR with duel strength, leadership, and calm progression from the back.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotCongo DRCOD
Rank#27baseline #27
Elo1704#33
Champion1.5%baseline 1.5%
Leader gap3.9%
Final5.3%baseline 5.3%
Group advance61%baseline 61%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 79Scenario 82.8
Defense+1.5
Base 79Scenario 80.5
Form0
Base 79Scenario 79
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Yoane WissaProfileFlexible scoring forward
Wissa gives Congo DR movement across the front line, pressing, and clean finishing in transition.
Cédric BakambuProfileVeteran finisher
Bakambu adds penalty-box timing, counterattacking instincts, and late-game scoring experience.
Aaron Wan-BissakaProfileLockdown right-back
Wan-Bissaka gives Congo DR elite one-v-one defending and recovery tackles on the right side.
Arthur MasuakuProfileAttacking left-back
Masuaku adds left-footed delivery, ball carrying, and set-piece value from the flank.
Gaël KakutaProfileCreative midfielder
Kakuta supplies line-breaking touches and final-third invention when Congo DR need controlled possession.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Matthieu EpoloStandard LiègeTimothy FayuluFC SionLionel Mpasi-NzauLe Havre AC
Defenders
Axel TuanzebeBurnley FCSteve KapuadiWidzew LodzChancel MbembaLOSC LilleDylan BatubinsikaWithout ClubJoris KayembeKRC GenkArthur MasuakuSunderland AFCAaron Wan-BissakaWest Ham UnitedGédéon KaluluAris Limassol
Midfielders
Ngal'ayel MukauLOSC LilleCharles PickelUS CremoneseNoah SadikiSunderland AFCEdo KayembeWatford FCSamuel MoutoussamyAtromitos AthensAaron TshibolaKilmarnock FCGaël KakutaWithout Club
Forwards
Nathanaël MbukuFC AugsburgBrian CipengaUD AlmeríaThéo BongondaWithout ClubYoane WissaNewcastle UnitedSimon BanzaAl-Jazira ClubFiston MayeleWithout ClubMeschack EliaAlanyasporCédric BakambuWithout Club
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders12 teams43%
Sleepers22 teams40.5%Selected team
Long shots12 teams5.9%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2013#6 | 3.7% | 11.8% | 19.7% | 32.8% | 54.7% | 91.1% | |
| 9 | 2004#7 | 3.5% | 11.3% | 19% | 31.9% | 53.5% | 89.6% | |
| 27 | 1704#33 | 1.5% | 5.3% | 9.7% | 17.8% | 32.8% | 61% | |
| 39 | 1631#36 | 0.6% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 8.6% | 17% | 34.5% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%62%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%63%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%67%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal37%32%22%91%
Colombia35%32%23%90%
Congo DR18%22%32%61%
Uzbekistan10%14%23%34%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.