James RodríguezProfileCaptain and final-ball creator
James remains Colombia's final-ball hub, adding set pieces, tempo changes, and left-footed invention.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotColombiaCOL
Rank#5baseline #5
Elo2004#7
Champion4.1%baseline 4.1%
Leader gap1.3%
Final12.8%baseline 12.8%
Group advance93.2%baseline 93.2%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 89Scenario 92.8
Defense+1.5
Base 89Scenario 90.5
Form0
Base 89Scenario 89
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Luis DíazProfileExplosive left winger
Díaz gives Colombia elite acceleration, one-v-one threat, and direct scoring from the left.
David OspinaProfileVeteran goalkeeper
Ospina brings tournament experience, penalty-box calm, and leadership behind Colombia's back line.
Davinson SánchezProfileDefensive power
Sánchez gives Colombia aerial dominance, recovery defending, and physical duels against central forwards.
Richard RíosProfileProgressive midfielder
Ríos adds carrying power, ball-winning range, and forward passing through midfield pressure.
Jhon CórdobaProfileCentral target forward
Córdoba gives Colombia a strong penalty-box target, hold-up play, and pressure on centre-backs.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Álvaro MonteroCA Vélez SarsfieldCamilo VargasAtlas GuadalajaraDavid OspinaAtlético Nacional
Defenders
Jhon LucumíBologna FC 1909Davinson SánchezGalatasarayWiller DittaCD Cruz AzulYerry MinaCagliari CalcioDeiver MachadoWithout ClubJohan MojicaRCD MallorcaDaniel MuñozCrystal PalaceSantiago AriasCA Independiente
Midfielders
Richard RíosSL BenficaJefferson LermaCrystal PalaceKevin CastañoCA River PlateGustavo PuertaRacing SantanderJuan PortillaClub Athletico ParanaenseJorge CarrascalCR FlamengoJuan Fernando QuinteroCA River PlateJames RodríguezWithout Club
Forwards
Luis DíazBayern MunichAndrés GómezClube de Regatas Vasco da GamaJáminton CampazCA Rosario CentralJhon AriasSociedade Esportiva PalmeirasLuis SuárezSporting CPCucho HernándezReal Betis BalompiéJhon CórdobaFC Krasnodar
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders12 teams43.5%Selected team
Sleepers22 teams40%
Long shots12 teams5.9%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2004#7 | 4.1% | 12.8% | 21% | 34.6% | 56.8% | 93.2% | |
| 7 | 2013#6 | 3.7% | 11.9% | 19.8% | 33% | 55% | 91.5% | |
| 34 | 1704#33 | 1.2% | 4.1% | 7.7% | 14.6% | 27.6% | 52.7% | |
| 39 | 1631#36 | 0.6% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 8.7% | 17.4% | 35.2% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%63%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%64%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%41%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%68%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Colombia40%33%20%93%
Portugal36%34%22%91%
Congo DR14%19%33%53%
Uzbekistan10%14%25%35%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.