World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotJordanJOR

Rank#38baseline #38

Elo1628#37

Champion0.7%baseline 0.7%

Leader gap4.7%

Final2.8%baseline 2.8%

Group advance40.4%baseline 40.4%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 76Scenario 79.8

Defense+1.5

Base 76Scenario 77.5

Form0

Base 76Scenario 76

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

ForwardsStade Rennais FC

Mousa TamariProfilePrimary wide attacker

Tamari gives Jordan pace, one-v-one threat, and the direct route to turn deep defending into attacks.

ForwardsAl-Sailiya SC

Ali OlwanProfileCentral finishing outlet

Olwan gives Jordan a penalty-box target, pressing work, and movement to finish quick wide service.

DefendersFC Seoul

Yazan Al-ArabProfileDefensive leader

Al-Arab organizes Jordan's defensive line with aerial command, duels, and set-piece presence.

MidfieldersWithout Club

Nizar Al-RashdanProfileMidfield ball-winner

Al-Rashdan protects Jordan's back line with positioning, tackles, and quick outlets after regains.

GoalkeepersAl-Hussein SC (Irbid)

Yazeed AbulailaProfileExperienced goalkeeper

Abulaila gives Jordan penalty-box command and reaction saves when pressure builds around the area.

ForwardsAl-Hussein SC (Irbid)

Mahmoud Al-MardiProfileLeft-side connector

Al-Mardi supports Jordan's attacks with wide combinations, carries, and disciplined recovery runs.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Yazeed AbulailaAl-Hussein SC (Irbid)Noor Bane AtayaAl-Faisaly SCAbdallah Al-FakhouriAl-Wehdat SC

Defenders

Yazan Al-ArabFC SeoulSaed Al-RousanWithout ClubAbdallah NasibWithout ClubHusam Abu DahabAl-Faisaly SCMohammad AbualnadiCorvinul HunedoaraSaleem ObaidAl-Hussein SC (Irbid)Mohannad Abu TahaAl-Quwa Al-JawiyaMohammad Abu HasheeshAl-KarmaMohammad Abu GhoushShabab Al-Ordon ClubEhsan HaddadAl-Hussein SC (Irbid)Anas BadawiAl-Faisaly SC

Midfielders

Nizar Al-RashdanWithout ClubAmer JamousAl-Wehdat SCNoor Al-RawabdehWithout ClubIbrahim SaadehAl-KarmaRajaei AyedWithout ClubMohammad Al-DawoudAl-Wehdat SC

Forwards

Odeh FakhouryPyramids FCMahmoud Al-MardiAl-Hussein SC (Irbid)Mousa TamariStade Rennais FCMohammad Abu ZrayqRaja Club AthleticAli AzaizehKazma SCAli OlwanAl-Sailiya SC

SourcesWikipedia Jordan 2026 squad template Transfermarkt Jordan detailed squad positions, profiles, and photos Wikidata, Transfermarkt, and public social identifiers

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.3%

Sleepers22 teams40.1%

Long shots12 teams6%Selected team

#	Elo
1	2148#2	5.4%	16.1%	25.5%	39.9%	62.5%	97.2%
21	1821#21	2.1%	7.1%	12.6%	22.5%	40.2%	72.2%
30	1756#27	1.4%	5%	9.1%	16.9%	31.4%	58.8%
38	1628#37	0.7%	2.8%	5.3%	10.4%	20.4%	40.4%

Knockout pathJordan

Round of 32vs Japan28.4%
Win in 90 min 20.4%Reach stage 40.4%
Round of 16vs Colombia23.2%
Win in 90 min 16.7%Reach stage 20.4%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil20.4%
Win in 90 min 14.7%Reach stage 10.4%
Semi-finalvs Spain14.2%
Win in 90 min 10.2%Reach stage 5.3%
Finalvs Argentina13.2%
Win in 90 min 9.5%Reach stage 2.8%

Champion0.7%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance40.4%

Round of 1620.4%

Quarter-final10.4%

Semi-final5.3%

Final2.8%

Champion0.7%

Group J outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 0.7%current 0.7%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 2.8%current 2.8%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 40.4%current 40.4%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

Jordan33.4%AdvancevsArgentina66.6%Opponent advance

90 min win 28.4%90 min draw 14.9%90 min loss 56.7%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico43%31%19%91%

Korea Republic24%28%28%70%

Czechia21%26%30%64%

South Africa12%16%23%35%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%15%95%

Canada25%32%29%76%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%

Qatar8%12%21%25%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil46%32%17%95%

Morocco28%32%27%83%

Scotland17%23%33%60%

Haiti9%13%22%30%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany39%33%22%91%

Ecuador34%33%24%88%

Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%

Curacao8%11%19%24%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands40%32%20%92%

Japan31%32%25%85%

Sweden19%23%32%62%

Tunisia10%13%22%31%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium39%31%21%88%

IR Iran29%30%27%78%

Egypt21%25%30%64%

New Zealand11%14%22%32%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%96%

Norway28%33%28%86%

Senegal18%24%36%67%

Iraq7%11%20%25%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%12%97%

Austria19%30%30%72%

Algeria14%24%32%59%

Jordan10%17%26%40%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England45%33%17%95%

Croatia32%34%24%88%

Panama14%20%34%51%

Ghana9%13%25%32%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03