David AlabaProfileCaptain and build-up leader
Alaba gives Austria leadership, left-footed progression, and defensive reading across multiple back-line roles.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotAustriaAUT
Rank#18baseline #18
Elo1821#21
Champion2.6%baseline 2.6%
Leader gap2.8%
Final8.7%baseline 8.7%
Group advance80.3%baseline 80.3%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 83Scenario 86.8
Defense+1.5
Base 83Scenario 84.5
Form0
Base 83Scenario 83
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Marcel SabitzerProfileBox-to-box scorer
Sabitzer connects Austria's press to attack with ball striking, late runs, and set-piece quality.
Konrad LaimerProfilePressing engine
Laimer drives Austria's intensity with recoveries, overlapping runs, and relentless duel work.
Marko ArnautovicProfileVeteran penalty-box target
Arnautovic offers hold-up play, penalty-box craft, and late-game presence when Austria need a direct target.
Kevin DansoProfilePhysical centre-back
Danso gives Austria recovery pace, aerial strength, and aggressive defending against powerful forwards.
Alexander SchlagerProfileGoalkeeping base
Schlager provides shot-stopping and distribution security behind Austria's high-energy defensive shape.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Florian WiegeleFC Viktoria PlzenPatrick PentzBröndby IFAlexander SchlagerRed Bull Salzburg
Defenders
David AffengruberElche CFKevin DansoTottenham HotspurPhilipp LienhartSC FreiburgMarco FriedlSV Werder BremenStefan PoschComo 1907Michael SvobodaBrighton & Hove AlbionDavid AlabaWithout ClubPhillipp Mwene1.FSV Mainz 05Konrad LaimerBayern Munich
Midfielders
Nicolas SeiwaldRB LeipzigDejan LjubicicFC Schalke 04Florian GrillitschWithout ClubPaul WannerPSV EindhovenCarney ChukwuemekaBorussia DortmundXaver SchlagerWithout ClubMarcel SabitzerBorussia DortmundAlessandro SchöpfLASKAlexander PrassTSG 1899 HoffenheimRomano SchmidSV Werder Bremen
Forwards
Patrick WimmerTSG 1899 HoffenheimSasa KalajdzicWolverhampton WanderersMarko ArnautovicRed Star BelgradeMichael GregoritschFC Augsburg
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders12 teams43.2%
Sleepers22 teams40.4%Selected team
Long shots12 teams5.8%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2148#2 | 5.4% | 16.2% | 25.5% | 39.9% | 62.5% | 97.3% | |
| 18 | 1821#21 | 2.6% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 26.3% | 45.9% | 80.3% | |
| 30 | 1756#27 | 1.4% | 5% | 9.2% | 17.1% | 31.6% | 59.2% | |
| 40 | 1628#37 | 0.5% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 16% | 32.7% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%62%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%64%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%67%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina55%30%12%97%
Austria22%33%30%80%
Algeria14%23%34%59%
Jordan8%14%24%33%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.