Lionel MessiProfileCaptain and final-third reference
Messi remains Argentina's creative compass, tying together possession control, set pieces, and decisive final-third actions.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotArgentinaARG
Rank#1baseline #1
Elo2148#2
Champion5.9%baseline 5.9%
Leader gap0%
Final17.4%baseline 17.4%
Group advance98.3%baseline 98.3%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 95Scenario 98.8
Defense+1.5
Base 95Scenario 96.5
Form0
Base 95Scenario 95
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Julián AlvarezProfilePressing striker
Alvarez gives Argentina a relentless forward who can press centre-backs, attack channels, and finish moves around Messi.
Lautaro MartínezProfilePenalty-box finisher
Lautaro brings penalty-box timing, aerial aggression, and a direct scoring profile when Argentina need a central target.
Emiliano MartínezProfileTournament goalkeeper
Martínez gives Argentina elite shot stopping, penalty confidence, and the emotional command that has defined recent titles.
Enzo FernándezProfileProgressive midfield passer
Fernández advances possession with vertical passing, switches of play, and the range to connect Argentina's midfield lines.
Cristian RomeroProfileAggressive centre-back
Romero sets the defensive tone with front-foot duels, recovery speed, and the edge Argentina need behind attacking full-backs.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Juan MussoAtlético de MadridGerónimo RulliOlympique MarseilleEmiliano MartínezAston Villa
Defenders
Marcos SenesiTottenham HotspurFacundo MedinaOlympique MarseilleLisandro MartínezManchester UnitedCristian RomeroTottenham HotspurNicolás OtamendiCA River PlateNicolás TagliaficoOlympique LyonGonzalo MontielCA River PlateNahuel MolinaAtlético de Madrid
Midfielders
Leandro ParedesCA Boca JuniorsRodrigo De PaulInter Miami CFValentín BarcoRC Strasbourg AlsaceGiovani Lo CelsoReal Betis BalompiéExequiel PalaciosBayer 04 LeverkusenNico PazComo 1907Alexis Mac AllisterLiverpool FCEnzo FernándezChelsea FC
Forwards
Nicolás GonzálezJuventus FCThiago AlmadaAtlético de MadridGiuliano SimeoneAtlético de MadridLionel MessiInter Miami CFJulián AlvarezAtlético de MadridLautaro MartínezInter MilanFlaco LópezSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams11.1%Selected team
Contenders12 teams43.1%
Sleepers22 teams40%
Long shots12 teams5.8%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2148#2 | 5.9% | 17.4% | 27% | 41.7% | 64.3% | 98.3% | |
| 20 | 1821#21 | 2.1% | 7.2% | 12.9% | 23% | 41.1% | 73.8% | |
| 29 | 1756#27 | 1.5% | 5.1% | 9.4% | 17.4% | 32.3% | 60.5% | |
| 40 | 1628#37 | 0.5% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 8.3% | 16.6% | 33.8% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%63%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%64%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%41%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%68%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina62%28%9%98%
Austria17%32%32%74%
Algeria13%25%34%61%
Jordan8%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.