Riyad MahrezProfileCaptain and right-side creator
Mahrez remains Algeria's decisive right-sided creator, mixing set pieces, cut-ins, and final-ball quality.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotAlgeriaALG
Rank#23baseline #23
Elo1756#27
Champion1.9%baseline 1.9%
Leader gap3.5%
Final6.3%baseline 6.3%
Group advance68%baseline 68%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 80Scenario 83.8
Defense+1.5
Base 80Scenario 81.5
Form0
Base 80Scenario 80
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Rayan Aït-NouriProfileProgressive full-back
Aït-Nouri gives Algeria left-side carrying, underlaps, and recovery speed against elite wide attacks.
Amine GouiriProfileLinking forward
Gouiri links midfield to attack with clever movement, combination play, and shooting touch around the box.
Mohamed AmouraProfileTransition runner
Amoura attacks space early, giving Algeria speed behind defenses and pressure on loose second balls.
Houssem AouarProfileInterior passer
Aouar adds line-breaking passing and late arrivals when Algeria need more control in possession.
Ramy BensebainiProfileLeft-sided defensive anchor
Bensebaini brings aerial defense, set-piece threat, and experience across centre-back or left-back roles.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Luca ZidaneGranada CFOussama BenboutUSM AlgerMelvin MastilFC Lausanne-Sport
Defenders
Ramy BensebainiBorussia DortmundSamir CherguiParis FCZineddine BelaidJS KabylieMohamed Amine TougaiEsperance TunisAïssa MandiLOSC LilleAchref AbadaUSM AlgerRayan Aït-NouriManchester CityJaouen HadjamBSC Young BoysRafik BelghaliHellas Verona
Midfielders
Ramiz ZerroukiFeyenoord RotterdamNabil BentalebLOSC LilleHicham BoudaouiOGC NiceYassine TitraouiRoyal Charleroi SCIbrahim MazaBayer 04 LeverkusenFarès ChaïbiEintracht FrankfurtHoussem AouarAl-Ittihad Club
Forwards
Adil BoulbinaAl-Duhail SCRiyad MahrezAl-Ahli SFCAnis Hadj MoussaFeyenoord RotterdamFarès GhedjemisFrosinone CalcioAmine GouiriOlympique MarseilleMohamed AmouraVfL WolfsburgNadhir BenboualiETO FC
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders12 teams43.2%
Sleepers22 teams40.4%Selected team
Long shots12 teams5.8%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2148#2 | 5.4% | 16.2% | 25.5% | 39.9% | 62.5% | 97.3% | |
| 21 | 1821#21 | 2.1% | 7.1% | 12.6% | 22.6% | 40.4% | 72.4% | |
| 23 | 1756#27 | 1.9% | 6.3% | 11.4% | 20.6% | 37.4% | 68% | |
| 40 | 1628#37 | 0.5% | 2% | 4% | 7.9% | 16% | 32.5% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%62%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%63%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%67%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina56%29%12%97%
Austria19%29%32%72%
Algeria17%27%33%68%
Jordan8%14%23%33%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.