Sadio ManéProfileWide scoring leader
Mané remains Senegal's reference for decisive wide runs, penalty-area timing, and tournament experience in high-pressure matches.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotSenegalSEN
Rank#20baseline #20
Elo1816#22
Champion2.2%baseline 2.2%
Leader gap3.2%
Final7.5%baseline 7.5%
Group advance74.3%baseline 74.3%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 83Scenario 86.8
Defense+1.5
Base 83Scenario 84.5
Form0
Base 83Scenario 83
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Kalidou KoulibalyProfileCaptain and defensive anchor
Koulibaly organizes Senegal's back line with aerial strength, recovery defending, and leadership when the block comes under pressure.
Édouard MendyProfileExperienced goalkeeper
Mendy gives Senegal penalty-box command, shot-stopping experience, and calm distribution when opponents press high.
Pape Matar SarrProfileBox-to-box runner
Sarr connects Senegal's transitions with ball carrying, counter-pressing energy, and late arrivals around the box.
Nicolas JacksonProfileCentral depth threat
Jackson stretches centre-backs with direct running and gives Senegal a vertical outlet for early balls and fast breaks.
Lamine CamaraProfileProgressive midfield passer
Camara adds forward passing, set-piece quality, and the tempo changes Senegal need against compact midfields.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Yehvann DioufOGC NiceÉdouard MendyAl-Ahli SFCMory DiawLe Havre AC
Defenders
Mamadou SarrChelsea FCKalidou KoulibalyAl-Hilal SFCAbdoulaye SeckMaccabi HaifaIsmail JakobsGalatasarayKrépin DiattaAS MonacoMoussa NiakhatéOlympique LyonAntoine MendyOGC NiceEl Hadji Malick DioufWest Ham United
Midfielders
Idrissa Gana GueyeEvertonPathé CissRayo VallecanoLamine CamaraAS MonacoPape Matar SarrTottenham HotspurHabib DiarraSunderlandBara Sapoko NdiayeBayern MunichPape GueyeVillarreal CF
Forwards
Assane DiaoComo 1907Bamba DiengLorientSadio ManéAl-Nassr FCNicolas JacksonBayern MunichCherif NdiayeSamsunsporIliman NdiayeEverton FCIsmaïla SarrCrystal PalaceIbrahim MbayeParis Saint-Germain
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders12 teams43.1%
Sleepers22 teams40.4%Selected team
Long shots12 teams5.9%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2134#3 | 4.7% | 14.4% | 23.1% | 37.2% | 59.7% | 95.4% | |
| 12 | 1934#11 | 3% | 9.9% | 16.9% | 29% | 49.6% | 85% | |
| 20 | 1816#22 | 2.2% | 7.5% | 13.2% | 23.5% | 41.7% | 74.3% | |
| 46 | 1561#43 | 0.3% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 5.4% | 11.2% | 23.6% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%62%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%63%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France46%32%18%95%
Norway27%31%30%85%
Senegal20%26%35%74%
Iraq7%10%18%24%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.