World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotNorwayNOR

Rank#8baseline #8

Elo1934#11

Champion3.6%baseline 3.6%

Leader gap1.8%

Final11.5%baseline 11.5%

Group advance90.7%baseline 90.7%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 87Scenario 90.8

Defense+1.5

Base 87Scenario 88.5

Form0

Base 87Scenario 87

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

ForwardsManchester City

Erling HaalandProfileElite penalty-box finisher

Haaland gives Norway elite finishing, vertical runs, and a constant target when transition chances open.

MidfieldersArsenal FC

Martin ØdegaardProfileCaptain and chance creator

Ødegaard sets Norway's tempo with final-third passing, pressing cues, and calm control between lines.

ForwardsAtlético de Madrid

Alexander SørlothProfilePower forward

Sørloth adds aerial presence, channel running, and a second scoring reference beside Haaland.

ForwardsRB Leipzig

Antonio NusaProfileWide acceleration threat

Nusa stretches defenses with acceleration, one-v-one carries, and early service from wide zones.

MidfieldersFulham FC

Sander BergeProfileMidfield stabilizer

Berge gives Norway ball-winning size, carrying power, and a calm first pass after regains.

DefendersBrentford FC

Kristoffer AjerProfileDefensive organizer

Ajer anchors the back line with height, recovery defending, and clean progression from centre-back.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Sander TangvikHamburger SVEgil SelvikWatford FCØrjan NylandWithout Club

Defenders

Kristoffer AjerBrentford FCLeo ØstigårdGenoa CFCTorbjørn HeggemBologna FC 1909Henrik FalchenerViking FKSondre LangåsDerby CountyDavid Møller WolfeWolverhampton WanderersFredrik BjørkanFK Bodø/GlimtJulian RyersonBorussia DortmundMarcus PedersenTorino FC

Midfielders

Sander BergeFulham FCPatrick BergFK Bodø/GlimtFredrik AursnesSL BenficaKristian ThorstvedtUS SassuoloMorten ThorsbyUS CremoneseMartin ØdegaardArsenal FCThelo AasgaardRangers FC

Forwards

Antonio NusaRB LeipzigAndreas SchjelderupSL BenficaJens Petter HaugeFK Bodø/GlimtOscar BobbFulham FCErling HaalandManchester CityJørgen Strand LarsenCrystal PalaceAlexander SørlothAtlético de Madrid

SourcesWikipedia Norway 2026 squad template Transfermarkt Norway detailed squad positions, profiles, and photos Wikidata, Transfermarkt, and public social identifiers

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.6%Selected team

Sleepers22 teams39.9%

Long shots12 teams5.9%

#	Elo
3	2134#3	4.7%	14.4%	23.2%	37.2%	59.8%	95.5%
8	1934#11	3.6%	11.5%	19.3%	32.3%	54.2%	90.7%
25	1816#22	1.8%	6.1%	10.9%	19.9%	36.2%	66.2%
46	1561#43	0.3%	1.3%	2.6%	5.4%	11.3%	23.9%

Knockout pathNorway

Round of 32vs Morocco59.2%
Win in 90 min 42.6%Reach stage 90.7%
Round of 16vs Colombia50.4%
Win in 90 min 36.3%Reach stage 54.2%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil46.2%
Win in 90 min 33.3%Reach stage 32.3%
Semi-finalvs Spain35.6%
Win in 90 min 25.6%Reach stage 19.3%
Finalvs Argentina33.7%
Win in 90 min 24.3%Reach stage 11.5%

Champion3.6%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance90.7%

Round of 1654.2%

Quarter-final32.3%

Semi-final19.3%

Final11.5%

Champion3.6%

Group I outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 3.6%current 3.6%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 11.5%current 11.5%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 90.7%current 90.7%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

Norway40.4%AdvancevsArgentina59.6%Opponent advance

90 min win 32.4%90 min draw 19.8%90 min loss 47.8%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico43%31%19%91%

Korea Republic24%28%28%70%

Czechia21%26%30%64%

South Africa12%16%23%35%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%15%95%

Canada25%32%29%76%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%

Qatar8%12%21%25%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil46%32%17%95%

Morocco28%32%27%83%

Scotland17%23%33%60%

Haiti9%13%22%30%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany39%33%22%91%

Ecuador34%33%24%88%

Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%

Curacao8%11%19%24%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands40%32%20%92%

Japan31%32%25%85%

Sweden19%23%32%62%

Tunisia10%13%22%31%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium39%31%21%88%

IR Iran29%30%27%78%

Egypt21%25%30%64%

New Zealand11%14%22%32%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France45%33%18%96%

Norway31%34%26%91%

Senegal17%23%37%66%

Iraq7%10%20%24%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England45%33%17%95%

Croatia32%34%24%88%

Panama14%20%34%51%

Ghana9%13%25%32%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03