World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotIraqIRQ

Rank#41baseline #41

Elo1561#43

Champion0.5%baseline 0.5%

Leader gap4.9%

Final1.8%baseline 1.8%

Group advance29.9%baseline 29.9%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 73Scenario 76.8

Defense+1.5

Base 73Scenario 74.5

Form0

Base 73Scenario 73

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

GoalkeepersAl-Zawraa

Jalal HassanProfileCaptain and goalkeeper

Hassan gives Iraq its experienced tournament voice, combining penalty-box command with the calm needed behind a compact block.

ForwardsIpswich Town

Ali Al-HamadiProfileVertical centre-forward

Al-Hamadi stretches centre-backs with direct runs and gives Iraq an outlet for early balls, counterattacks, and second-phase pressure.

MidfieldersFC Utrecht

Zidane IqbalProfileProgressive midfield carrier

Iqbal brings press resistance, forward carrying, and passing variety when Iraq need to move from deep defending into controlled attacks.

ForwardsAl-Karma

Aymen HusseinProfilePenalty-box finisher

Hussein gives Iraq aerial presence, near-post timing, and a target for crosses when the match turns into set-piece and box-entry battles.

MidfieldersAl-Najma

Ali JasimProfileWide creative runner

Jasim adds one-v-one threat, carrying from the left side, and the ability to turn transition moments into shots or cutbacks.

DefendersPort FC

Rebin SulakaProfileExperienced centre-back

Sulaka gives Iraq aerial defending, duel reliability, and tournament experience when the back line has to absorb long spells without the ball.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Fahad TalibAl-TalabaJalal HassanAl-ZawraaAhmed BasilAl-Shorta

Defenders

Rebin SulakaPort FCHussein AliPogon SzczecinZaid TahseenPakhtakorAkam HashimAl-ZawraaManaf YounisAl-ShortaAhmed MaknziAl-KarmaMerchas DoskiViktoria PlzenMustafa SaadoonAl-ShortaFrans PutrosPersib

Midfielders

Youssef AmynAEK LarnacaIbrahim BayeshAl-DhafraAhmed QasemNashville SCZidane IqbalFC UtrechtAmir Al-AmmariCracoviaAli JasimAl-NajmaKevin YakobAGFAimar SherSarpsborgMarko FarjiVenezia FCZaid IsmailAl-Talaba

Forwards

Ali Al-HamadiIpswich TownMohanad AliDibba FCAli YousifAl-TalabaAymen HusseinAl-Karma

SourcesFIFA Iraq World Cup squad announcement Wikipedia Iraq 2026 squad template Heavy Iraq 2026 squad positions and clubs Transfermarkt Iraq detailed squad profiles and photos Wikidata, Transfermarkt, and public social identifiers

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.2%

Sleepers22 teams40.2%

Long shots12 teams6%Selected team

#	Elo
3	2134#3	4.7%	14.3%	23.1%	37.1%	59.6%	95.2%
13	1934#11	3%	9.8%	16.8%	28.8%	49.4%	84.7%
25	1816#22	1.7%	6%	10.8%	19.7%	35.7%	65.4%
41	1561#43	0.5%	1.8%	3.6%	7.2%	14.6%	29.9%

Knockout pathIraq

Round of 32vs Japan23.9%
Win in 90 min 17.2%Reach stage 29.9%
Round of 16vs Colombia19.3%
Win in 90 min 13.9%Reach stage 14.6%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil16.8%
Win in 90 min 12.1%Reach stage 7.2%
Semi-finalvs Spain11.5%
Win in 90 min 8.3%Reach stage 3.6%
Finalvs Argentina10.7%
Win in 90 min 7.7%Reach stage 1.8%

Champion0.5%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance29.9%

Round of 1614.6%

Quarter-final7.2%

Semi-final3.6%

Final1.8%

Champion0.5%

Group I outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 0.5%current 0.5%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 1.8%current 1.8%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 29.9%current 29.9%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

Iraq32.7%AdvancevsArgentina67.3%Opponent advance

90 min win 27.8%90 min draw 14.9%90 min loss 57.3%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico43%31%19%91%

Korea Republic24%28%28%70%

Czechia21%26%30%64%

South Africa12%16%23%35%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%15%95%

Canada25%32%29%76%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%

Qatar8%12%21%25%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil46%32%17%95%

Morocco28%32%27%83%

Scotland17%23%33%60%

Haiti9%13%22%30%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany39%33%22%91%

Ecuador34%33%24%88%

Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%

Curacao8%11%19%24%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands40%32%20%92%

Japan31%32%25%85%

Sweden19%23%32%62%

Tunisia10%13%22%31%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium39%31%21%88%

IR Iran29%30%27%78%

Egypt21%25%30%64%

New Zealand11%14%22%32%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%95%

Norway27%32%28%85%

Senegal18%24%34%65%

Iraq9%13%22%30%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England45%33%17%95%

Croatia32%34%24%88%

Panama14%20%34%51%

Ghana9%13%25%32%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03