Kylian MbappéProfileCaptain and elite scorer
Mbappé is France's clearest title lever, combining captaincy, transition speed, and ruthless finishing from the left or centre.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotFranceFRA
Rank#3baseline #3
Elo2134#3
Champion5.2%baseline 5.2%
Leader gap0.2%
Final15.7%baseline 15.7%
Group advance97%baseline 97%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 94Scenario 97.8
Defense+1.5
Base 94Scenario 95.5
Form0
Base 94Scenario 94
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Mike MaignanProfileCommanding goalkeeper
Maignan gives France aggressive box command, calm distribution, and the shot-stopping base for a high defensive line.
William SalibaProfileBack-line stabilizer
Saliba stabilizes France's back line with recovery pace, duel control, and clean first passes into midfield.
Aurélien TchouaméniProfileMidfield screen and distributor
Tchouaméni screens transitions, wins aerial duels, and gives France a secure passing platform ahead of the centre-backs.
Ousmane DembéléProfileTwo-footed creator
Dembélé stretches defensive shapes with two-footed carries, cutbacks, and the final pass that opens room for Mbappé.
Michael OliseProfileRight-side chance creator
Olise adds right-side control with disguised passes, inside combinations, and set-piece quality around a loaded attack.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Robin RisserRC LensMike MaignanAC MilanBrice SambaStade Rennais FC
Defenders
William SalibaArsenal FCDayot UpamecanoBayern MunichMaxence LacroixCrystal PalaceIbrahima KonatéReal MadridThéo HernandezAl-Hilal SFCLucas HernandezParis Saint-GermainLucas DigneAston VillaJules KoundéFC BarcelonaMalo GustoChelsea FC
Midfielders
Aurélien TchouaméniReal MadridN'Golo KantéFenerbahceWarren Zaïre-EmeryParis Saint-GermainManu KonéAS RomaAdrien RabiotAC MilanRayan CherkiManchester City
Forwards
Bradley BarcolaParis Saint-GermainMichael OliseBayern MunichDésiré DouéParis Saint-GermainMaghnes AklioucheAS MonacoKylian MbappéReal MadridOusmane DembéléParis Saint-GermainMarcus ThuramInter MilanJean-Philippe MatetaCrystal Palace
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites3 teams15.8%Selected team
Contenders11 teams38.3%
Sleepers22 teams40%
Long shots12 teams5.9%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2134#3 | 5.2% | 15.7% | 24.9% | 39.2% | 61.8% | 97% | |
| 12 | 1934#11 | 3.1% | 10% | 17.1% | 29.2% | 50.1% | 85.8% | |
| 25 | 1816#22 | 1.8% | 6.1% | 11.1% | 20.1% | 36.6% | 66.9% | |
| 46 | 1561#43 | 0.3% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 5.6% | 11.5% | 24.3% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%63%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%64%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%41%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France52%31%14%97%
Norway25%34%29%86%
Senegal16%24%37%67%
Iraq7%11%20%24%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.