Federico ValverdeProfileTwo-way midfield driver
Valverde gives Uruguay elite transition power, long-range shooting, and the work rate to keep high-intensity knockout matches alive.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotUruguayURU
Rank#13baseline #13
Elo1841#19
Champion3%baseline 3%
Leader gap2.4%
Final9.9%baseline 9.9%
Group advance86.2%baseline 86.2%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 84Scenario 87.8
Defense+1.5
Base 84Scenario 85.5
Form0
Base 84Scenario 84
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Darwin NúñezProfileVertical penalty-box threat
The direct centre-forward raises Uruguay's upset profile because his runs can turn one clean pass into a high-value chance.
Ronald AraujoProfileRecovery-speed defender
Araujo lets Uruguay defend wider and higher because he can cover space behind the line against elite forwards.
Manuel UgarteProfileBall-winning shield
Ugarte anchors the pressure game, breaking counters early and letting Uruguay turn recoveries into quick attacks.
Giorgian de ArrascaetaProfileChance-creation specialist
Arrascaeta gives Uruguay a calmer final-third passer who can unlock blocks when the match slows down.
Sergio RochetProfileExperienced goalkeeper
Rochet gives the squad a steady tournament goalkeeper profile behind a physical and aggressive defensive unit.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Santiago MeleCF MonterreySergio RochetSport Club InternacionalFernando MusleraClub Estudiantes de La Plata
Defenders
Ronald AraujoFC BarcelonaSantiago BuenoWolverhampton WanderersJosé María GiménezAtlético de MadridSebastián CáceresCF AméricaMaxi AraújoSporting CPMathías OliveraSSC NapoliJoaquín PiquerezSociedade Esportiva PalmeirasJuan Manuel SanabriaReal Salt Lake CityMatías ViñaCA River PlateGuillermo VarelaCR Flamengo
Midfielders
Manuel UgarteManchester UnitedRodrigo BentancurTottenham HotspurEmiliano MartínezSociedade Esportiva PalmeirasFederico ValverdeReal MadridNicolás de la CruzCR FlamengoRodrigo ZalazarSporting CPGiorgian de ArrascaetaCR Flamengo
Forwards
Brian RodríguezCF AméricaAgustín CanobbioFluminense Football ClubFacundo PellistriPanathinaikosDarwin NúñezAl-Hilal SFCFederico ViñasClub León FCRodrigo AguirreTigres UANL
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders13 teams46.1%Selected team
Sleepers21 teams37.4%
Long shots12 teams5.9%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2159#1 | 5.2% | 15.7% | 24.9% | 39.3% | 62% | 97.3% | |
| 13 | 1841#19 | 3% | 9.9% | 17% | 29.2% | 50.2% | 86.2% | |
| 37 | 1622#38 | 0.8% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 11% | 21.5% | 42.6% | |
| 38 | 1596#40 | 0.7% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 9.8% | 19.3% | 38.9% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%62%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%64%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain54%31%12%97%
Uruguay26%36%26%86%
Cabo Verde10%17%32%43%
Saudi Arabia10%16%30%39%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%67%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.