Lamine YamalProfileElite right-wing creator
Spain's most explosive wide creator bends the model upward because he can turn sterile possession into shots without needing a set-piece or turnover.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotSpainESP
Rank#1baseline #1
Elo2159#1
Champion5.7%baseline 5.7%
Leader gap0%
Final16.9%baseline 16.9%
Group advance98.3%baseline 98.3%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 95Scenario 98.8
Defense+1.5
Base 95Scenario 96.5
Form0
Base 95Scenario 95
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
RodriProfileMidfield control anchor
The captain-level holding midfielder gives Spain pressure resistance, second-ball control, and the ability to keep knockout matches from becoming chaotic.
PedriProfileInterior tempo setter
Pedri links the first pass, the final pass, and the pressure escape that keeps Spain's probability profile high against compact blocks.
Nico WilliamsProfileLeft-wing field stretcher
His direct carries stretch the left side, forcing defenders to cover width and giving Spain another way to create high-value chances.
Unai SimónProfileTournament goalkeeper
The Athletic Bilbao goalkeeper gives Spain continuity behind the high line and enough distribution range to restart attacks quickly.
Marc CucurellaProfileAggressive wide defender
Cucurella's front-foot defending and wide recovery runs help Spain compress the field after turnovers.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Joan GarcíaFC BarcelonaDavid RayaArsenal FCUnai SimónAthletic Bilbao
Defenders
Pau CubarsíFC BarcelonaEric GarcíaFC BarcelonaMarc PubillAtlético de MadridAymeric LaporteAthletic BilbaoMarc CucurellaReal MadridAlejandro GrimaldoAtlético de MadridPedro PorroTottenham HotspurMarcos LlorenteAtlético de Madrid
Midfielders
Martín ZubimendiArsenal FCRodriManchester CityPedriFC BarcelonaFabián RuizParis Saint-GermainGaviFC BarcelonaMikel MerinoArsenal FCDani OlmoFC Barcelona
Forwards
Álex BaenaAtlético de MadridNico WilliamsAthletic BilbaoVíctor MuñozLiverpool FCLamine YamalFC BarcelonaYéremy PinoCrystal PalaceFerran TorresFC BarcelonaMikel OyarzabalReal SociedadBorja IglesiasCelta de Vigo
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams11.1%Selected team
Contenders12 teams43%
Sleepers22 teams40%
Long shots12 teams5.9%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2159#1 | 5.7% | 16.9% | 26.4% | 41.1% | 63.8% | 98.3% | |
| 18 | 1841#19 | 2.5% | 8.5% | 14.8% | 26% | 45.8% | 80.7% | |
| 37 | 1622#38 | 0.8% | 3% | 5.7% | 11.2% | 22% | 43.7% | |
| 38 | 1596#40 | 0.7% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 10% | 19.9% | 39.9% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%63%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%64%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain60%28%9%98%
Uruguay21%36%29%81%
Cabo Verde10%19%32%44%
Saudi Arabia9%17%30%40%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%68%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.