Salem Al-DawsariProfileCaptain-level wide scorer
Saudi Arabia's most proven attacker brings World Cup scoring history, one-v-one confidence, and a direct route to upset chances.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotSaudi ArabiaKSA
Rank#37baseline #37
Elo1596#40
Champion0.9%baseline 0.9%
Leader gap4.5%
Final3.4%baseline 3.4%
Group advance47.1%baseline 47.1%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 75Scenario 78.8
Defense+1.5
Base 75Scenario 76.5
Form0
Base 75Scenario 75
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Firas Al-BuraikanProfileReference striker
Al-Buraikan gives the front line a central target, linking counter-attacks and turning wide deliveries into set-piece pressure.
Saud AbdulhamidProfileHigh-energy full-back
The RC Lens full-back stretches the right side and gives Saudi Arabia recovery speed when matches become transition-heavy.
Hassan TambaktiProfileCentral defensive organiser
Tambakti anchors the defensive line and gives the side a clearer aerial and duel profile against stronger Group H attacks.
Mohamed KannoProfilePhysical midfield runner
Kanno adds size, ball-carrying, and late-box runs that can keep Saudi Arabia from becoming too passive without the ball.
Mohammed Al-OwaisProfileTournament-experienced goalkeeper
Al-Owais gives the squad a goalkeeper with major tournament experience and the shot-stopping profile needed for long defensive stretches.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Nawaf Al-AqidiAl-Nassr FCMohammed Al-OwaisAl-Ula FCAhmed Al-KassarAl-Qadsiah FC
Defenders
Hassan TambaktiAl-Hilal SFCAbdulelah Al-AmriAl-Nassr FCJehad ThakriAl-Qadsiah FCAli LajamiAl-Hilal SFCMoteb Al-HarbiAl-Hilal SFCAyman YahyaAl-Nassr FCHassan KadeshAl-Ittihad ClubSaud AbdulhamidRC LensMohammed Abu Al-ShamatAl-Qadsiah FCAli MajrashiAl-Ahli SFCNawaf BoushalAl-Nassr FC
Midfielders
Ziyad Al-JohaniAl-Ahli SFCAbdullah Al-KhaibariAl-Nassr FCMusab Al-JuwayrAl-Qadsiah FCNasser Al-DawsariAl-Hilal SFCMohamed KannoAl-Hilal SFCAlaa HejjiNEOM SC
Forwards
Khalid Al-GhannamAl-Ettifaq FCSalem Al-DawsariAl-Hilal SFCSultan MandashAl-Hilal SFCFiras Al-BuraikanAl-Ahli SFCSaleh Al-ShehriAl-Ittihad ClubAbdullah Al-HamdanAl-Nassr FC
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders12 teams43.3%
Sleepers22 teams40.1%
Long shots12 teams6%Selected team
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2159#1 | 5.2% | 15.7% | 24.9% | 39.3% | 61.9% | 97.2% | |
| 18 | 1841#19 | 2.5% | 8.3% | 14.6% | 25.6% | 45% | 79.3% | |
| 37 | 1596#40 | 0.9% | 3.4% | 6.5% | 12.5% | 24.1% | 47.1% | |
| 38 | 1622#38 | 0.8% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 10.9% | 21.3% | 42.2% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%62%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%64%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain55%30%12%97%
Uruguay22%33%29%79%
Saudi Arabia12%19%31%47%
Cabo Verde11%18%29%42%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%67%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.