World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotCabo VerdeCPV

Rank#35baseline #35

Elo1622#38

Champion1.1%baseline 1.1%

Leader gap4.3%

Final3.9%baseline 3.9%

Group advance51.1%baseline 51.1%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 76Scenario 79.8

Defense+1.5

Base 76Scenario 77.5

Form0

Base 76Scenario 76

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

GoalkeepersGD Chaves

VozinhaProfileVeteran goalkeeper

The Cape Verde-born No. 1 gives the Blue Sharks a calm base and links the World Cup squad back to the domestic core.

ForwardsIgdir FK

Ryan MendesProfileCaptain and reference forward

Cape Verde's captain sets the attacking rhythm from the front line and brings the most established leadership profile in the squad.

ForwardsCasa Pia

Dailon LivramentoProfileQualifier breakthrough scorer

A direct forward whose qualifying goals gave Cape Verde a sharper edge in the final third and helped turn pressure into history.

DefendersVillarreal

Logan CostaProfileTop-level centre-back

A high-level defender in Europe who gives Cape Verde recovery speed, aerial coverage, and cleaner buildup under pressure.

MidfieldersPEC Zwolle

Jamiro MonteiroProfileMidfield connector

The midfield organiser who helps connect Cape Verde's defensive block with its wide forwards and counter-attacking runners.

ForwardsApollon Limassol

Garry RodriguesProfileExperienced wide threat

An experienced wide attacker who gives the team transition pace, one-v-one threat, and another senior voice around the forward line.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

VozinhaGD ChavesMarcio RosaPFC MontanaCJ Dos SantosSan Diego FC

Defenders

Steven MoreiraColumbus CrewWagner PinaTrabzonsporJoao Paulo FernandesFCSBSidny Lopes CabralBenficaLogan CostaVillarrealRoberto LopesShamrock RoversKelvin PiresSJK SeinajokiStopiraTorreenseDiney BorgesAl-Bataeh

Midfielders

Jamiro MonteiroPEC ZwolleTelmo ArcanjoVitoria SCYannick SemedoFarenseLaros DuartePuskas AkademiaDeroy DuarteLudogoretsKevin PinaKrasnodar

Forwards

Ryan MendesIgdir FKWilly SemedoOmonia NicosiaGarry RodriguesApollon LimassolJovane CabralEstrela AmadoraNuno da CostaBasaksehirDailon LivramentoCasa PiaGilson BenchimolAkron TogliattiHelio VarelaMaccabi Tel Aviv

SourcesInforpress 26-man squad AS squad clubs Guardian team context Transfermarkt profiles and social links

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.3%

Sleepers23 teams41.1%Selected team

Long shots11 teams5%

#	Elo
2	2159#1	5.2%	15.7%	24.9%	39.3%	61.9%	97.2%
18	1841#19	2.5%	8.3%	14.6%	25.6%	45%	79.4%
35	1622#38	1.1%	3.9%	7.3%	13.9%	26.5%	51.1%
38	1596#40	0.7%	2.5%	4.9%	9.7%	19.2%	38.5%

Knockout pathCabo Verde

Round of 32vs Japan32.3%
Win in 90 min 23.3%Reach stage 51.1%
Round of 16vs Colombia26.6%
Win in 90 min 19.2%Reach stage 26.5%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil23.5%
Win in 90 min 16.9%Reach stage 13.9%
Semi-finalvs Spain16.5%
Win in 90 min 11.9%Reach stage 7.3%
Finalvs Argentina15.4%
Win in 90 min 11.1%Reach stage 3.9%

Champion1.1%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance51.1%

Round of 1626.5%

Quarter-final13.9%

Semi-final7.3%

Final3.9%

Champion1.1%

Group H outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 1.1%current 1.1%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 3.9%current 3.9%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 51.1%current 51.1%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

Cabo Verde34%AdvancevsArgentina66%Opponent advance

90 min win 28.9%90 min draw 14.9%90 min loss 56.2%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico43%31%19%91%

Korea Republic24%28%28%70%

Czechia21%26%30%64%

South Africa12%16%23%35%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%15%95%

Canada25%32%29%76%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%

Qatar8%12%21%25%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil46%32%17%95%

Morocco28%32%27%83%

Scotland17%23%33%60%

Haiti9%13%22%30%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany39%33%22%91%

Ecuador34%33%24%88%

Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%

Curacao8%11%19%24%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands40%32%20%92%

Japan31%32%25%85%

Sweden19%23%32%62%

Tunisia10%13%22%31%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium39%31%21%88%

IR Iran29%30%27%78%

Egypt21%25%30%64%

New Zealand11%14%22%32%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain55%30%12%97%

Uruguay22%33%29%79%

Cabo Verde13%21%32%51%

Saudi Arabia10%16%27%39%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%96%

Norway28%33%28%86%

Senegal18%24%36%67%

Iraq7%11%20%25%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England45%33%17%95%

Croatia32%34%24%88%

Panama14%20%34%51%

Ghana9%13%25%32%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03