World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotNew ZealandNZL

Rank#41baseline #41

Elo1534#45

Champion0.6%baseline 0.6%

Leader gap4.8%

Final2.1%baseline 2.1%

Group advance37.3%baseline 37.3%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 72Scenario 75.8

Defense+1.5

Base 72Scenario 73.5

Form0

Base 72Scenario 72

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

ForwardsNottingham Forest

Chris WoodProfileCaptain and penalty-box scorer

Wood gives New Zealand its clearest scoring route, attacking early crosses and turning direct possession into box shots.

GoalkeepersMillwall FC

Max CrocombeProfileFirst-choice goalkeeper

Crocombe anchors New Zealand from goal with shot-stopping, command on crosses, and Championship-level rhythm.

DefendersWrexham AFC

Liberato CacaceProfileLeft-side progression outlet

Cacace advances New Zealand up the left with carries, overlaps, and defensive recovery speed against stronger wings.

DefendersSheffield United

Tyler BindonProfileYoung centre-back pillar

Bindon gives New Zealand a young defensive pillar, combining size, recovery pace, and comfort stepping into midfield.

MidfieldersViking FK

Joe BellProfileMidfield organizer

Bell organizes New Zealand's midfield with pressing discipline, second-ball work, and clean release passes after recoveries.

MidfieldersFK TSC Backa Topola

Sarpreet SinghProfileCreative attacking midfielder

Singh supplies New Zealand's most natural between-lines creativity, looking for set-piece quality and passes into Wood.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Max CrocombeMillwall FCAlex PaulsenLechia GdanskMichael WoudAuckland FC

Defenders

Tyler BindonSheffield UnitedFinn SurmanPortland TimbersNando PijnakerAuckland FCMichael BoxallMinnesota United FCTommy SmithBraintree TownLiberato CacaceWrexham AFCBen OldAS Saint-EtienneFrancis de VriesAuckland FCCallan ElliotAuckland FCTim PayneWellington Phoenix

Midfielders

Joe BellViking FKRyan ThomasPEC ZwolleAlex RuferWellington PhoenixMarko StamenicSwansea CityLachlan BaylissAuckland FCElijah JustMotherwell FCCallum McCowattSilkeborg IFSarpreet SinghFK TSC Backa Topola

Forwards

Jesse RandallDundee United FCLogan RogersonAuckland FCChris WoodNottingham ForestBen WainePort Vale FCKosta BarbarousesWithout Club

SourcesFIFA New Zealand World Cup squad announcement Wikipedia New Zealand 2026 squad template Transfermarkt New Zealand 2026 squad and player photos Wikidata, Transfermarkt, and public social identifiers

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.3%

Sleepers22 teams40.1%

Long shots12 teams6%Selected team

#	Elo
16	1910#12	2.9%	9.5%	16.5%	28.7%	49.9%	87.2%
21	1764#25	2.1%	7.1%	12.8%	23.1%	42%	76.6%
33	1742#29	1.3%	4.7%	8.9%	16.9%	32.1%	61.7%
41	1534#45	0.6%	2.1%	4.3%	8.8%	17.9%	37.3%

Knockout pathNew Zealand

Round of 32vs Belgium23%
Win in 90 min 16.6%Reach stage 37.3%
Round of 16vs Colombia17.9%
Win in 90 min 12.9%Reach stage 17.9%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil15.6%
Win in 90 min 11.2%Reach stage 8.8%
Semi-finalvs Spain10.6%
Win in 90 min 7.6%Reach stage 4.3%
Finalvs Argentina9.8%
Win in 90 min 7.1%Reach stage 2.1%

Champion0.6%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance37.3%

Round of 1617.9%

Quarter-final8.8%

Semi-final4.3%

Final2.1%

Champion0.6%

Group G outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 0.6%current 0.6%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 2.1%current 2.1%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 37.3%current 37.3%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

New Zealand32.5%AdvancevsArgentina67.5%Opponent advance

90 min win 27.7%90 min draw 14.9%90 min loss 57.4%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico43%31%19%91%

Korea Republic24%28%28%70%

Czechia21%26%30%64%

South Africa12%16%23%35%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%15%95%

Canada25%32%29%76%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%

Qatar8%12%21%25%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil46%32%17%95%

Morocco28%32%27%83%

Scotland17%23%33%60%

Haiti9%13%22%30%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany39%33%22%91%

Ecuador34%33%24%88%

Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%

Curacao8%11%19%24%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands40%32%20%92%

Japan31%32%25%85%

Sweden19%23%32%62%

Tunisia10%13%22%31%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium38%31%21%87%

IR Iran28%29%26%77%

Egypt21%24%29%62%

New Zealand13%16%23%37%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%96%

Norway28%33%28%86%

Senegal18%24%36%68%

Iraq7%11%20%25%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England45%33%17%95%

Croatia32%34%24%88%

Panama14%20%34%51%

Ghana9%13%25%32%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03