World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotIR IranIRN

Rank#19baseline #19

Elo1764#25

Champion2.5%baseline 2.5%

Leader gap2.9%

Final8.5%baseline 8.5%

Group advance83.8%baseline 83.8%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 81Scenario 84.8

Defense+1.5

Base 81Scenario 82.5

Form0

Base 81Scenario 81

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

ForwardsOlympiacos Piraeus

Mehdi TaremiProfileCentral finisher and link striker

Taremi is IR Iran's main penalty-box finisher, linking midfield possession with delayed runs and clinical first-time shots.

GoalkeepersTractor FC

Alireza BeiranvandProfileCommanding goalkeeper

Beiranvand gives IR Iran tournament experience, long distribution, and the aerial reach to manage pressure spells.

ForwardsWithout Club

Alireza JahanbakhshProfileWide creator and captain-level outlet

Jahanbakhsh brings the senior wide outlet, slowing matches when needed and attacking the far post from right-sided zones.

DefendersSepahan FC

Ehsan HajsafiProfileVeteran left-sided organizer

Hajsafi helps IR Iran manage the left side with set-piece delivery, build-up calm, and positional experience.

MidfieldersShabab Al-Ahli Club

Saeed EzatolahiProfileDeep midfield screen

Ezatolahi screens the center, contests second balls, and lets IR Iran's advanced players stay ready for counters.

MidfieldersKalba FC

Saman GhoddosProfileBetween-lines passer

Ghoddos gives IR Iran a technical option between the lines, linking quick combinations into shots around Taremi.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Payam NiazmandPersepolis FCAlireza BeiranvandTractor FCSeyed Hossein HosseiniSepahan FC

Defenders

Hossein KanaanizadeganPersepolis FCDanial EiriZob Ahan EsfahanAli NematiFoolad FCShoja KhalilzadehTractor FCMilad MohammadiPersepolis FCEhsan HajsafiSepahan FCArya YousefiSepahan FCSaleh HardaniEsteghlal FCRamin RezaeianEsteghlal FC

Midfielders

Saeed EzatolahiShabab Al-Ahli ClubMohammad GhorbaniAl-Wahda FCRoozbeh CheshmiEsteghlal FCAmirmohammad RazzaghiniaEsteghlal FCSaman GhoddosKalba FC

Forwards

Mehdi GhayediAl-Nasr SCMohammad MohebiFC RostovMehdi TorabiTractor FCAlireza JahanbakhshWithout ClubAmirhossein HosseinzadehTractor FCMehdi TaremiOlympiacos PiraeusDennis Eckert AyensaStandard LiegeAli AlipourPersepolis FCShahriar MoghanlouWithout Club

SourcesFIFA IR Iran World Cup squad announcement Wikipedia IR Iran 2026 squad template Transfermarkt IR Iran 2026 squad and player photos Wikidata, Transfermarkt, and public social identifiers

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.2%

Sleepers22 teams40.3%Selected team

Long shots12 teams5.9%

#	Elo
15	1910#12	2.9%	9.5%	16.5%	28.8%	50.1%	87.5%
19	1764#25	2.5%	8.5%	15.1%	26.6%	47.2%	83.8%
33	1742#29	1.3%	4.8%	9%	17%	32.3%	62.1%
45	1534#45	0.4%	1.6%	3.2%	6.8%	14.2%	30.5%

Knockout pathIR Iran

Round of 32vs Japan45.8%
Win in 90 min 33%Reach stage 83.8%
Round of 16vs Colombia39.1%
Win in 90 min 28.2%Reach stage 47.2%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil35.2%
Win in 90 min 25.3%Reach stage 26.6%
Semi-finalvs Spain25.9%
Win in 90 min 18.6%Reach stage 15.1%
Finalvs Argentina24.3%
Win in 90 min 17.5%Reach stage 8.5%

Champion2.5%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance83.8%

Round of 1647.2%

Quarter-final26.6%

Semi-final15.1%

Final8.5%

Champion2.5%

Group G outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 2.5%current 2.5%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 8.5%current 8.5%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 83.8%current 83.8%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

IR Iran36.8%AdvancevsArgentina63.2%Opponent advance

90 min win 31.3%90 min draw 14.9%90 min loss 53.8%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico43%31%19%91%

Korea Republic24%28%28%70%

Czechia21%26%30%64%

South Africa12%16%23%35%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%15%95%

Canada25%32%29%76%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%

Qatar8%12%21%25%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil46%32%17%95%

Morocco28%32%27%83%

Scotland17%23%33%60%

Haiti9%13%22%30%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany39%33%22%91%

Ecuador34%33%24%88%

Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%

Curacao8%11%19%24%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands40%32%20%92%

Japan31%32%25%85%

Sweden19%23%32%62%

Tunisia10%13%22%31%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium37%31%22%88%

IR Iran33%31%25%84%

Egypt20%24%31%62%

New Zealand10%14%22%30%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%96%

Norway28%33%28%86%

Senegal18%24%36%67%

Iraq7%11%20%25%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England45%33%17%95%

Croatia32%34%24%88%

Panama14%20%34%51%

Ghana9%13%25%32%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03