Kevin De BruyneProfileElite final-third passer
De Bruyne gives Belgium its most precise final-third passing, turning small pockets into clear chances for runners.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotBelgiumBEL
Rank#10baseline #10
Elo1910#12
Champion3.4%baseline 3.4%
Leader gap2%
Final11%baseline 11%
Group advance92.2%baseline 92.2%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 86Scenario 89.8
Defense+1.5
Base 86Scenario 87.5
Form0
Base 86Scenario 86
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Romelu LukakuProfilePenalty-box reference point
Lukaku remains Belgium's penalty-box reference point, offering hold-up strength, near-post timing, and finishing gravity.
Thibaut CourtoisProfileTournament goalkeeper anchor
Courtois anchors Belgium with elite shot-stopping, reach on crosses, and the calm to reset pressure phases.
Jérémy DokuProfileOne-v-one winger
Doku gives Belgium direct one-v-one threat, stretching full-backs and forcing low blocks to collapse toward his wing.
Youri TielemansProfileCaptain and midfield passer
Tielemans gives Belgium captain-level midfield control, switching tempo and connecting the back line to creators.
Amadou OnanaProfileBall-winning midfield screen
Onana gives Belgium a rangy midfield screen, covering counters and turning recoveries into forward possession.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Thibaut CourtoisReal MadridSenne LammensManchester UnitedMike PendersChelsea FC
Defenders
Timothy CastagneFulham FCZeno DebastSporting CPMaxim De CuyperBrighton & Hove AlbionKoni De WinterAC MilanBrandon MecheleClub Brugge KVThomas MeunierWithout ClubNathan NgoyLOSC LilleJoaquin SeysClub Brugge KVArthur TheateEintracht Frankfurt
Midfielders
Kevin De BruyneSSC NapoliAmadou OnanaAston VillaNicolas RaskinRangers FCYouri TielemansAston VillaHans VanakenClub Brugge KVAxel WitselWithout Club
Forwards
Charles De KetelaereAtalanta BCJérémy DokuManchester CityMatias Fernandez-PardoLOSC LilleRomelu LukakuSSC NapoliDodi LukébakioSL BenficaDiego MoreiraRC Strasbourg AlsaceAlexis SaelemaekersAC MilanLeandro TrossardArsenal FC
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders13 teams46.5%Selected team
Sleepers21 teams37%
Long shots12 teams5.9%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1910#12 | 3.4% | 11% | 18.7% | 31.8% | 54.1% | 92.2% | |
| 21 | 1764#25 | 2.1% | 7.1% | 12.9% | 23.4% | 42.4% | 77.3% | |
| 33 | 1742#29 | 1.3% | 4.8% | 9% | 17.1% | 32.5% | 62.4% | |
| 45 | 1534#45 | 0.4% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 6.8% | 14.3% | 30.7% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%62%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium43%31%19%92%
IR Iran27%30%28%77%
Egypt20%24%32%62%
New Zealand10%14%22%31%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%68%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.