World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotTunisiaTUN

Rank#40baseline #40

Elo1562#42

Champion0.6%baseline 0.6%

Leader gap4.8%

Final2.3%baseline 2.3%

Group advance36.8%baseline 36.8%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 73Scenario 76.8

Defense+1.5

Base 73Scenario 74.5

Form0

Base 73Scenario 73

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

MidfieldersBurnley FC

Hannibal MejbriProfileDisruptive midfield runner

Hannibal gives Tunisia its most disruptive midfield runner, carrying pressure into the final third and forcing hurried decisions.

MidfieldersEintracht Frankfurt

Ellyes SkhiriProfileBall-winning midfield anchor

Skhiri anchors Tunisia with experienced ball-winning, positional discipline, and the first pass after regains.

DefendersFC Lorient

Montassar TalbiProfileComposed centre-back

Talbi gives Tunisia a composed centre-back who can defend aerial pressure and keep the line connected.

ForwardsSC Braga

Ismaël GharbiProfileWide creative spark

Gharbi adds Tunisia's wide creative spark, receiving between lines and turning narrow spaces into combinations.

DefendersSheffield Wednesday

Yan ValeryProfileTransition right-back

Valery stretches Tunisia from right-back, giving the side recovery speed and a direct lane in transition.

GoalkeepersClub Africain

Mouhib ChamakhProfileYoung goalkeeper profile

Chamakh gives Tunisia a young goalkeeper profile with reach, penalty-area confidence, and room to grow through tournament minutes.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Mouhib ChamakhClub AfricainAymen DahmenCS SfaxienSabri Ben HessenES Sahel

Defenders

Montassar TalbiFC LorientAdem ArousKasimpasaDylan BronnServette FCRaed ChikhaouiUS MonastirOmar RekikNK MariborAli AbdiOGC NiceMohamed Amine Ben HamidaEsperance TunisYan ValerySheffield WednesdayMoutaz NeffatiIFK Norrkoping

Midfielders

Ellyes SkhiriEintracht FrankfurtRani Khedira1. FC Union BerlinMohamed Belhadj MahmoudWithout ClubHannibal MejbriBurnley FCAnis Ben SlimaneNorwich City

Forwards

Ismaël GharbiSC BragaSebastian TounektiCeltic FCElias AchouriFC CopenhagenElias SaadFC AugsburgMortadha Ben OuanesKasimpasaKhalil AyariParis Saint-Germain EspoirsFiras ChaouatClub AfricainHazem MastouriDinamo MakhachkalaRayan ElloumiVancouver Whitecaps FC

SourcesFIFA Tunisia World Cup squad announcement Wikipedia Tunisia 2026 squad template Transfermarkt Tunisia 2026 squad and player photos Diwan FM Raed Chikhaoui player photo Wikidata, Transfermarkt, and public social identifiers

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.2%

Sleepers22 teams40.2%

Long shots12 teams6%Selected team

#	Elo
7	1971#8	3.6%	11.5%	19.4%	32.5%	54.5%	91.3%
16	1888#14	2.8%	9.3%	16.1%	27.8%	48.2%	83.7%
30	1731#30	1.4%	5%	9.3%	17.2%	32.1%	60.4%
40	1562#42	0.6%	2.3%	4.5%	9.1%	18.1%	36.8%

Knockout pathTunisia

Round of 32vs Japan25.4%
Win in 90 min 18.3%Reach stage 36.8%
Round of 16vs Colombia20.6%
Win in 90 min 14.8%Reach stage 18.1%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil18%
Win in 90 min 13%Reach stage 9.1%
Semi-finalvs Spain12.4%
Win in 90 min 8.9%Reach stage 4.5%
Finalvs Argentina11.5%
Win in 90 min 8.3%Reach stage 2.3%

Champion0.6%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance36.8%

Round of 1618.1%

Quarter-final9.1%

Semi-final4.5%

Final2.3%

Champion0.6%

Group F outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 0.6%current 0.6%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 2.3%current 2.3%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 36.8%current 36.8%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

Tunisia32.9%AdvancevsArgentina67.1%Opponent advance

90 min win 28%90 min draw 14.9%90 min loss 57.1%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico43%31%19%91%

Korea Republic24%28%28%70%

Czechia21%26%30%64%

South Africa12%16%23%35%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%15%95%

Canada25%32%29%76%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%

Qatar8%12%21%25%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil46%32%17%95%

Morocco28%32%27%83%

Scotland17%23%33%60%

Haiti9%13%22%30%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany39%33%22%91%

Ecuador34%33%24%88%

Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%

Curacao8%11%19%24%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands39%31%21%91%

Japan31%31%25%84%

Sweden18%22%31%60%

Tunisia12%15%24%37%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium39%31%21%88%

IR Iran29%30%27%78%

Egypt21%25%30%64%

New Zealand11%14%22%32%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%96%

Norway28%33%28%86%

Senegal18%24%36%68%

Iraq7%11%20%25%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England45%33%17%95%

Croatia32%34%24%88%

Panama14%20%34%51%

Ghana9%13%25%32%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03