World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotSwedenSWE

Rank#23baseline #23

Elo1731#30

Champion1.9%baseline 1.9%

Leader gap3.5%

Final6.4%baseline 6.4%

Group advance69.4%baseline 69.4%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 80Scenario 83.8

Defense+1.5

Base 80Scenario 81.5

Form0

Base 80Scenario 80

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

ForwardsLiverpool FC

Alexander IsakProfileHigh-end centre-forward outlet

Isak gives Sweden a high-end centre-forward outlet, combining penalty-box timing with link play for a direct attack.

ForwardsArsenal FC

Viktor GyökeresProfilePower-running striker

Gyökeres adds Sweden's power-running striker profile, turning transitions into shots with strength and straight-line speed.

DefendersAston Villa

Victor LindelöfProfileDefensive line organiser

Lindelöf anchors Sweden's defensive line with captain-level organisation and calmer first passes under pressure.

MidfieldersTottenham Hotspur

Lucas BergvallProfileYoung midfield connector

Bergvall gives Sweden a young midfield connector who can receive under pressure and carry into the next line.

ForwardsNewcastle United

Anthony ElangaProfileWide transition runner

Elanga stretches matches for Sweden from wide areas, attacking space behind full-backs and turning recoveries into counters.

GoalkeepersDerby County

Jacob Widell ZetterströmProfileTournament-ready goalkeeper option

Widell Zetterström gives Sweden a tournament-ready goalkeeper option with reach and confidence in crowded penalty areas.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Viktor JohanssonStoke CityJacob Widell ZetterströmDerby CountyKristoffer NordfeldtAIK

Defenders

Isak HienAtalanta BCGustaf LagerbielkeSC BragaVictor LindelöfAston VillaHjalmar EkdalBurnley FCEric SmithFC St. PauliCarl StarfeltCelta de VigoDaniel SvenssonBorussia DortmundGabriel GudmundssonLeeds UnitedKen SemaPafos FC

Midfielders

Jesper KarlströmUdinese CalcioLucas BergvallTottenham HotspurYasin AyariBrighton & Hove AlbionMattias SvanbergVfL WolfsburgBesfort ZeneliUnion Saint-GilloiseHerman JohanssonFC DallasElliot StroudMjällby AIFBenjamin NygrenCeltic FC

Forwards

Taha AliMalmö FFAnthony ElangaNewcastle UnitedAlexander BernhardssonHolstein KielAlexander IsakLiverpool FCViktor GyökeresArsenal FCGustaf NilssonClub Brugge KV

SourcesFIFA Sweden 2026 squad page Wikipedia Sweden 2026 squad template Transfermarkt Sweden 2026 squad and player photos Wikidata, Transfermarkt, and public social identifiers

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.1%

Sleepers22 teams40.5%Selected team

Long shots12 teams5.8%

#	Elo
7	1971#8	3.6%	11.6%	19.4%	32.6%	54.6%	91.5%
16	1888#14	2.8%	9.3%	16.1%	27.9%	48.3%	83.9%
23	1731#30	1.9%	6.4%	11.5%	20.9%	38%	69.4%
43	1562#42	0.4%	1.7%	3.4%	6.9%	14.2%	29.6%

Knockout pathSweden

Round of 32vs Japan40.8%
Win in 90 min 29.4%Reach stage 69.4%
Round of 16vs Colombia34.4%
Win in 90 min 24.8%Reach stage 38%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil30.8%
Win in 90 min 22.2%Reach stage 20.9%
Semi-finalvs Spain22.2%
Win in 90 min 16%Reach stage 11.5%
Finalvs Argentina20.8%
Win in 90 min 15%Reach stage 6.4%

Champion1.9%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance69.4%

Round of 1638%

Quarter-final20.9%

Semi-final11.5%

Final6.4%

Champion1.9%

Group F outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 1.9%current 1.9%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 6.4%current 6.4%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 69.4%current 69.4%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

Sweden35.6%AdvancevsArgentina64.4%Opponent advance

90 min win 30.3%90 min draw 14.9%90 min loss 54.8%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico43%31%19%91%

Korea Republic24%28%28%70%

Czechia21%26%30%64%

South Africa12%16%23%35%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%15%95%

Canada25%32%29%76%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%

Qatar8%12%21%25%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil46%32%17%95%

Morocco28%32%27%83%

Scotland17%23%33%60%

Haiti9%13%22%30%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany39%33%22%91%

Ecuador34%33%24%88%

Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%

Curacao8%11%19%24%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands39%31%21%91%

Japan30%31%26%84%

Sweden21%25%32%69%

Tunisia10%13%20%30%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium39%31%21%88%

IR Iran29%30%27%78%

Egypt21%25%30%63%

New Zealand11%14%22%32%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%96%

Norway28%33%28%86%

Senegal18%24%36%67%

Iraq7%11%20%25%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England45%33%17%95%

Croatia32%34%24%88%

Panama14%20%34%51%

Ghana9%13%25%32%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03