Virgil van DijkProfileCaptain and defensive organiser
Van Dijk gives the Netherlands its defensive command, aerial control, and the calm passing base for knockout matches.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotNetherlandsNED
Rank#4baseline #4
Elo1971#8
Champion4.1%baseline 4.1%
Leader gap1.3%
Final13%baseline 13%
Group advance94.4%baseline 94.4%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 88Scenario 91.8
Defense+1.5
Base 88Scenario 89.5
Form0
Base 88Scenario 88
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Memphis DepayProfilePrimary attacking reference
Depay gives the attack a flexible focal point, dropping between lines and still arriving in the box for decisive shots.
Cody GakpoProfileLeft-sided goal threat
Gakpo stretches defences from the left, attacks inside channels, and gives the Netherlands a direct scoring route in transition.
Frenkie de JongProfilePress-resistant midfield carrier
De Jong helps the Netherlands escape pressure with carries through midfield and tempo control before the final pass.
Denzel DumfriesProfileRight-side power runner
Dumfries gives the right side vertical running, back-post presence, and a wing-back profile that can change the team's shape.
Bart VerbruggenProfileModern first-choice goalkeeper
Verbruggen adds shot-stopping and build-up range, important for a side that wants to control territory from the back.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Bart VerbruggenBrighton & Hove AlbionRobin RoefsSunderland AFCMark FlekkenBayer 04 Leverkusen
Defenders
Micky van de VenTottenham HotspurJan Paul van HeckeTottenham HotspurVirgil van DijkLiverpool FCNathan AkéFenerbahceJorrel HatoChelsea FCMats WiefferBrighton & Hove AlbionDenzel DumfriesInter MilanLutsharel GeertruidaRB Leipzig
Midfielders
Ryan GravenberchLiverpool FCTeun KoopmeinersJuventus FCMarten de RoonAtalanta BCTijjani ReijndersManchester CityFrenkie de JongFC BarcelonaQuinten TimberOlympique MarseilleJustin KluivertAFC BournemouthGuus TilPSV Eindhoven
Forwards
Cody GakpoLiverpool FCCrysencio SummervilleWest Ham UnitedNoa LangSSC NapoliDonyell MalenAS RomaBrian BrobbeySunderland AFCMemphis DepaySport Club Corinthians PaulistaWout WeghorstFC Twente Enschede
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders12 teams43.5%Selected team
Sleepers22 teams40.1%
Long shots12 teams5.8%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1971#8 | 4.1% | 13% | 21.4% | 35.1% | 57.6% | 94.4% | |
| 16 | 1888#14 | 2.9% | 9.4% | 16.2% | 28.1% | 48.7% | 84.6% | |
| 30 | 1731#30 | 1.5% | 5.1% | 9.4% | 17.6% | 32.7% | 61.5% | |
| 43 | 1562#42 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 7% | 14.4% | 30.2% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands44%32%18%94%
Japan29%32%27%85%
Sweden17%23%33%62%
Tunisia9%13%22%30%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%64%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%41%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%68%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.