World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotJapanJPN

Rank#10baseline #10

Elo1888#14

Champion3.4%baseline 3.4%

Leader gap2%

Final10.9%baseline 10.9%

Group advance89.7%baseline 89.7%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 85Scenario 88.8

Defense+1.5

Base 85Scenario 86.5

Form0

Base 85Scenario 85

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

ForwardsReal Sociedad

Takefusa KuboProfileCreative right-sided hub

Kubo gives Japan a creative right-sided hub, combining close control, tempo changes, and final-third passing against compact blocks.

Midfielders1.FSV Mainz 05

Kaishu SanoProfileBall-winning midfield anchor

Sano gives Japan the midfield ball-winning and recovery speed needed to keep attacks connected after turnovers.

ForwardsEintracht Frankfurt

Ritsu DoanProfileLeft-footed final-third threat

Doan adds a left-footed scoring route from the right half-space and can turn possession into shots without long build-up.

DefendersAjax Amsterdam

Ko ItakuraProfileBuild-up centre-back

Itakura helps Japan build from the back, stepping into midfield lanes while still protecting the defensive line.

GoalkeepersParma Calcio 1913

Zion SuzukiProfileHigh-upside goalkeeper

Suzuki gives Japan a high-upside goalkeeper profile with reach, shot-stopping, and the confidence to support possession.

ForwardsCeltic FC

Daizen MaedaProfilePressing and transition runner

Maeda gives Japan relentless pressing, recovery runs, and direct transition speed when the match opens up.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Zion SuzukiParma Calcio 1913Keisuke OsakoSanfrecce HiroshimaTomoki HayakawaKashima Antlers

Defenders

Hiroki ItoBayern MunichTsuyoshi WatanabeFeyenoord RotterdamKo ItakuraAjax AmsterdamAyumu SekoLe Havre ACTakehiro TomiyasuWithout ClubJunnosuke SuzukiFC CopenhagenShogo TaniguchiSint-Truidense VVYuto NagatomoFC TokyoYukinari SugawaraSouthampton FC

Midfielders

Kaishu Sano1.FSV Mainz 05Ao TanakaLeeds UnitedDaichi KamadaWithout Club

Forwards

Daizen MaedaCeltic FCKeito NakamuraStade ReimsTakefusa KuboReal SociedadRitsu DoanEintracht FrankfurtJunya ItoKRC GenkYuito SuzukiSC FreiburgAyase UedaFeyenoord RotterdamKeisuke GotoSC FreiburgKento ShiogaiVfL WolfsburgShuto MachinoBorussia MönchengladbachKoki OgawaNEC Nijmegen

SourcesFIFA Japan 2026 squad page Wikipedia Japan 2026 squad template Nippon.com Japan 2026 squad profiles Transfermarkt Japan 2026 squad and player photos Wikidata, Transfermarkt, and public social identifiers

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders13 teams46.4%Selected team

Sleepers21 teams37.2%

Long shots12 teams5.8%

#	Elo
7	1971#8	3.6%	11.6%	19.5%	32.7%	54.8%	91.8%
10	1888#14	3.4%	10.9%	18.5%	31.3%	53%	89.7%
30	1731#30	1.4%	5.1%	9.4%	17.5%	32.5%	61.2%
43	1562#42	0.4%	1.7%	3.4%	7%	14.3%	29.9%

Knockout pathJapan

Round of 32vs Morocco56.9%
Win in 90 min 41%Reach stage 89.7%
Round of 16vs Colombia47.9%
Win in 90 min 34.5%Reach stage 53%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil43.8%
Win in 90 min 31.5%Reach stage 31.3%
Semi-finalvs Spain33.4%
Win in 90 min 24%Reach stage 18.5%
Finalvs Argentina31.6%
Win in 90 min 22.8%Reach stage 10.9%

Champion3.4%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance89.7%

Round of 1653%

Quarter-final31.3%

Semi-final18.5%

Final10.9%

Champion3.4%

Group F outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 3.4%current 3.4%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 10.9%current 10.9%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 89.7%current 89.7%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

Japan39.5%AdvancevsArgentina60.5%Opponent advance

90 min win 32.3%90 min draw 18.2%90 min loss 49.5%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico43%31%19%91%

Korea Republic24%28%28%70%

Czechia21%26%30%64%

South Africa12%16%23%35%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%15%95%

Canada25%32%29%76%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%

Qatar8%12%21%25%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil46%32%17%95%

Morocco28%32%27%83%

Scotland17%23%33%60%

Haiti9%13%22%30%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany39%33%22%91%

Ecuador34%33%24%88%

Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%

Curacao8%11%19%24%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands38%33%22%92%

Japan35%33%23%90%

Sweden18%22%33%61%

Tunisia9%13%22%30%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium39%31%21%88%

IR Iran29%30%27%78%

Egypt21%25%30%64%

New Zealand11%14%22%32%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%96%

Norway28%33%28%86%

Senegal18%24%36%67%

Iraq7%11%20%25%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England45%33%17%95%

Croatia32%34%24%88%

Panama14%20%34%51%

Ghana9%13%25%32%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03