World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotGermanyGER

Rank#6baseline #6

Elo1908#13

Champion3.9%baseline 3.9%

Leader gap1.5%

Final12.2%baseline 12.2%

Group advance94.6%baseline 94.6%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 86Scenario 89.8

Defense+1.5

Base 86Scenario 87.5

Form0

Base 86Scenario 86

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

MidfieldersBayern Munich

Joshua KimmichProfileCaptain and midfield organizer

Kimmich gives Germany its captain, passing platform, and pressing organizer, letting the midfield switch between control and faster transitions.

MidfieldersBayern Munich

Jamal MusialaProfileLine-breaking creator

Musiala gives Germany elite carrying between lines, turning static possession into central entries and forcing defenders to collapse inward.

MidfieldersLiverpool FC

Florian WirtzProfileFinal-third connector

Wirtz links Germany's midfield and forwards with quick combinations, disguised passes, and the timing to arrive around the box.

ForwardsArsenal FC

Kai HavertzProfileFlexible forward reference

Havertz gives Germany a forward who can drop, combine, attack crosses, and change the front line's reference point by match state.

DefendersReal Madrid

Antonio RüdigerProfileDefensive duel leader

Rüdiger anchors Germany's centre-back duels with recovery speed, aerial power, and the aggression to defend large spaces.

GoalkeepersBayern Munich

Manuel NeuerProfileTournament-tested goalkeeper

Neuer gives Germany a goalkeeper with deep tournament experience, command of the box, and the distribution to support a high line.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Alexander NübelBayern MunichManuel NeuerBayern MunichOliver BaumannTSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Defenders

Nico SchlotterbeckBorussia DortmundMalick ThiawNewcastle UnitedJonathan TahBayern MunichWaldemar AntonBorussia DortmundAntonio RüdigerReal MadridNathaniel BrownBayern MunichDavid RaumRB Leipzig

Midfielders

Aleksandar PavlovicBayern MunichAngelo StillerVfB StuttgartJoshua KimmichBayern MunichFelix NmechaBorussia DortmundAssan OuédraogoRB LeipzigNadiem Amiri1.FSV Mainz 05Leon GoretzkaWithout ClubPascal GroßBrighton & Hove AlbionJamal MusialaBayern MunichFlorian WirtzLiverpool FC

Forwards

Jamie LewelingVfB StuttgartLeroy SanéGalatasarayKai HavertzArsenal FCNick WoltemadeNewcastle UnitedMaximilian BeierBorussia DortmundDeniz UndavVfB Stuttgart

SourcesDFB final World Cup squad Wikipedia Germany 2026 squad template Transfermarkt Germany 2026 squad and player photos Wikidata social identifiers

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.6%Selected team

Sleepers22 teams39.9%

Long shots12 teams5.9%

#	Elo
6	1908#13	3.9%	12.2%	20.4%	34.1%	56.8%	94.6%
14	1871#17	3%	9.8%	16.9%	29.2%	50.6%	87.7%
30	1727#31	1.4%	5.1%	9.4%	17.7%	33.2%	63.1%
47	1438#47	0.3%	1.1%	2.3%	5%	10.6%	23.3%

Knockout pathGermany

Round of 32vs Morocco60.2%
Win in 90 min 43.3%Reach stage 94.6%
Round of 16vs Colombia51.4%
Win in 90 min 37%Reach stage 56.8%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil47.2%
Win in 90 min 34%Reach stage 34.1%
Semi-finalvs Spain36.6%
Win in 90 min 26.4%Reach stage 20.4%
Finalvs Argentina34.6%
Win in 90 min 24.9%Reach stage 12.2%

Champion3.9%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance94.6%

Round of 1656.8%

Quarter-final34.1%

Semi-final20.4%

Final12.2%

Champion3.9%

Group E outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 3.9%current 3.9%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 12.2%current 12.2%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 94.6%current 94.6%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

Germany40.9%AdvancevsArgentina59.1%Opponent advance

90 min win 33.2%90 min draw 18.9%90 min loss 47.9%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico43%31%19%91%

Korea Republic24%28%28%70%

Czechia21%26%30%64%

South Africa12%16%23%35%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%15%95%

Canada25%32%29%76%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%

Qatar8%12%21%25%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil46%32%17%95%

Morocco28%32%27%83%

Scotland17%23%33%60%

Haiti9%13%22%30%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany43%33%19%95%

Ecuador32%33%25%88%

Cote d'Ivoire18%23%36%63%

Curacao7%11%19%23%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands40%32%20%92%

Japan31%32%25%85%

Sweden19%23%32%62%

Tunisia10%13%22%31%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium39%31%21%88%

IR Iran29%30%27%78%

Egypt21%25%30%64%

New Zealand11%14%22%32%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%96%

Norway28%33%28%86%

Senegal18%24%36%68%

Iraq7%11%20%25%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England45%33%17%95%

Croatia32%34%24%88%

Panama14%20%34%51%

Ghana9%13%25%32%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03