Moisés CaicedoProfileElite ball-winning midfield anchor
Caicedo gives Ecuador a tournament-grade midfield base, breaking counters early and turning recoveries into cleaner exits.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotEcuadorECU
Rank#10baseline #10
Elo1871#17
Champion3.5%baseline 3.5%
Leader gap1.9%
Final11.2%baseline 11.2%
Group advance92.2%baseline 92.2%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 85Scenario 88.8
Defense+1.5
Base 85Scenario 86.5
Form0
Base 85Scenario 85
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Willian PachoProfileLeft-footed centre-back organiser
Pacho anchors Ecuador's back line with progressive passing, aerial security, and the calm to absorb long defensive spells.
Piero HincapiéProfileAggressive recovery defender
Hincapié lets Ecuador defend more bravely because he can step out, cover wide channels, and recover behind the line.
Enner ValenciaProfileCaptain and scoring reference
Valencia gives Ecuador a proven penalty-box reference, leadership, and the timing to attack crosses when matches tighten.
Pervis EstupiñánProfileLeft-side transition runner
Estupiñán gives Ecuador width, recovery speed, and a left-sided runner who can turn defending into immediate territory gains.
Kendry PáezProfileYoung final-third creator
Páez adds a younger creative layer, receiving between lines and giving Ecuador a passer who can change tempo near the box.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Gonzalo ValleLDU QuitoMoisés RamírezAE KifisiaHernán GalíndezCA Huracán
Defenders
Willian PachoParis Saint-GermainPiero HincapiéArsenal FCJoel OrdóñezClub Brugge KVJackson PorozoClub TijuanaFélix TorresSport Club InternacionalPervis EstupiñánAC MilanYaimar MedinaKRC GenkAngelo PreciadoClube Atlético Mineiro
Midfielders
Moisés CaicedoChelsea FCJordy AlcívarIndependiente del ValleDenil CastilloFC MidtjyllandPedro ViteUNAM PumasAlan FrancoClube Atlético MineiroKendry PáezCA River Plate
Forwards
Nilson AnguloSunderland AFCGonzalo PlataCR FlamengoAlan MindaClube Atlético MineiroAnthony ValenciaRoyal Antwerp FCJohn YeboahVenezia FCJeremy ArévaloVfB StuttgartKevin RodríguezUnion Saint-GilloiseJordy CaicedoCA HuracánEnner ValenciaCF Pachuca
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders12 teams43.6%Selected team
Sleepers22 teams39.9%
Long shots12 teams5.9%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1871#17 | 3.5% | 11.2% | 19% | 32.2% | 54.5% | 92.2% | |
| 11 | 1908#13 | 3.3% | 10.8% | 18.4% | 31.3% | 53.3% | 90.9% | |
| 30 | 1727#31 | 1.4% | 5% | 9.4% | 17.6% | 33.2% | 62.9% | |
| 47 | 1438#47 | 0.3% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 5% | 10.6% | 23.2% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Ecuador38%33%22%92%
Germany36%33%23%91%
Cote d'Ivoire18%23%36%63%
Curacao8%11%19%23%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%62%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%64%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%68%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.