World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotCuracaoCUW

Rank#46baseline #46

Elo1438#47

Champion0.4%baseline 0.4%

Leader gap5%

Final1.5%baseline 1.5%

Group advance28.8%baseline 28.8%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 69Scenario 72.8

Defense+1.5

Base 69Scenario 70.5

Form0

Base 69Scenario 69

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

MidfieldersIgdir FK

Leandro BacunaProfileCaptain and midfield reference

Bacuna gives Curacao its captain, set-piece quality, and a central organiser who can steady long spells without the ball.

MidfieldersGaziantep FK

Juninho BacunaProfileBox-to-box carrier

Juninho Bacuna adds ball-carrying and late runs, giving Curacao a midfielder who can turn recoveries into direct attacks.

MidfieldersSheffield United

Tahith ChongProfileCreative transition outlet

Chong gives Curacao a left-footed outlet between midfield and attack, useful when the team breaks into space after defending deep.

GoalkeepersMiami FC

Eloy RoomProfileExperienced goalkeeper

Room brings tournament leadership and shot-stopping experience, important for a debutant side likely to absorb pressure.

DefendersWithout Club

Riechedly BazoerProfileBuild-up defender

Bazoer can add composure to the back line, helping Curacao progress the ball rather than only clearing pressure.

ForwardsMiami FC

Jürgen LocadiaProfilePenalty-box forward

Locadia gives Curacao a central forward reference, able to contest direct service and keep centre-backs occupied.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Eloy RoomMiami FCTrevor DoornbuschVVV-VenloTyrick BodakWithout Club

Defenders

Armando ObispoPSV EindhovenRiechedly BazoerWithout ClubDeveron FonvilleNEC NijmegenRoshon van EijmaWithout ClubJuriën GaariAbha ClubSherel FloranusPEC ZwolleShurandy SamboBurnley FCJoshua BrenetKayserisporLivano ComenenciaFC Zürich

Midfielders

Kevin FelidaFC Den BoschGodfried RoemeratoeWithout ClubJuninho BacunaGaziantep FKLeandro BacunaIgdir FKTyrese NoslinSC TelstarTahith ChongSheffield United

Forwards

Jearl MargarithaSK BeverenJeremy AntonisseAE KifisiaKenji GorréMaccabi HaifaSontje HansenMiddlesbrough FCAr'jany MarthaRotherham UnitedBrandley KuwasWithout ClubGervane KastaneerTerengganu FCJürgen LocadiaMiami FC

SourcesFIFA Curacao World Cup squad announcement Wikipedia Curaçao 2026 squad template Transfermarkt Curacao 2026 squad and player photos BlueWave FFK player photos Wikidata social identifiers

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.2%

Sleepers22 teams40.2%

Long shots12 teams6%Selected team

#	Elo
10	1908#13	3.3%	10.7%	18.3%	31.1%	53%	90.4%
14	1871#17	3%	9.7%	16.8%	29%	50.2%	87.1%
30	1727#31	1.4%	5%	9.3%	17.5%	32.8%	62.2%
46	1438#47	0.4%	1.5%	3.1%	6.5%	13.5%	28.8%

Knockout pathCuracao

Round of 32vs Japan19.8%
Win in 90 min 14.3%Reach stage 28.8%
Round of 16vs Colombia15.8%
Win in 90 min 11.4%Reach stage 13.5%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil13.7%
Win in 90 min 9.9%Reach stage 6.5%
Semi-finalvs Spain9.3%
Win in 90 min 6.7%Reach stage 3.1%
Finalvs Argentina8.6%
Win in 90 min 6.2%Reach stage 1.5%

Champion0.4%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance28.8%

Round of 1613.5%

Quarter-final6.5%

Semi-final3.1%

Final1.5%

Champion0.4%

Group E outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 0.4%current 0.4%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 1.5%current 1.5%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 28.8%current 28.8%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

Curacao32.2%AdvancevsArgentina67.8%Opponent advance

90 min win 27.4%90 min draw 14.9%90 min loss 57.7%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico43%31%19%91%

Korea Republic24%28%28%70%

Czechia21%26%30%64%

South Africa12%16%23%35%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%15%95%

Canada25%32%29%76%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%

Qatar8%12%21%25%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil46%32%17%95%

Morocco28%32%27%83%

Scotland17%23%33%60%

Haiti9%13%22%30%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany38%32%22%90%

Ecuador34%32%24%87%

Cote d'Ivoire19%23%33%62%

Curacao9%13%21%29%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands40%32%20%92%

Japan31%32%25%85%

Sweden19%23%32%62%

Tunisia10%13%22%31%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium39%31%21%88%

IR Iran29%30%27%78%

Egypt21%25%30%64%

New Zealand11%14%22%32%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%96%

Norway28%33%28%86%

Senegal18%24%36%68%

Iraq7%11%20%25%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England45%33%17%95%

Croatia32%34%24%88%

Panama14%20%34%51%

Ghana9%13%25%32%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03