World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotCote d'IvoireCIV

Rank#23baseline #23

Elo1727#31

Champion1.8%baseline 1.8%

Leader gap3.6%

Final6.3%baseline 6.3%

Group advance71%baseline 71%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 79Scenario 82.8

Defense+1.5

Base 79Scenario 80.5

Form0

Base 79Scenario 79

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

MidfieldersWithout Club

Franck KessiéProfileCaptain and midfield anchor

Kessié gives Cote d'Ivoire its captain, penalty-box timing, and a midfield reference who can protect the back line under pressure.

DefendersAS Roma

Evan NdickaProfileLeft-footed defensive linchpin

Ndicka anchors the defence with left-footed build-up, aerial control, and the range to defend wide spaces when the line steps up.

ForwardsSunderland AFC

Simon AdingraProfileDirect left-wing creator

Adingra gives Cote d'Ivoire a winger who can isolate full-backs, attack the byline, and turn transitions into clear chances.

ForwardsManchester United

Amad DialloProfileRight-side playmaker

Diallo adds close control and inside passing from the right, giving the attack a creator who can combine before shooting.

DefendersGalatasaray

Wilfried SingoProfilePowerful right-side defender

Singo gives the back line recovery pace, aerial power, and a right-side defender who can defend or advance into wing-back zones.

GoalkeepersCaykur Rizespor

Yahia FofanaProfileFirst-choice goalkeeper

Fofana gives Cote d'Ivoire a high-reaction goalkeeper, important for a side that can leave open-field shots after fast attacks.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Yahia FofanaCaykur RizesporAlban LafontFC NantesMohamed KonéRoyal Charleroi SC

Defenders

Ousmane DiomandeSporting CPEvan NdickaAS RomaEmmanuel AgbadouBesiktas JKOdilon KossounouAtalanta BCChristopher OpériBasaksehir FKGhislain KonanGil Vicente FCWilfried SingoGalatasarayGuéla DouéRC Strasbourg Alsace

Midfielders

Ibrahim SangaréNottingham ForestJean Michaël SeriNK MariborChrist Inao OulaïTrabzonsporFranck KessiéWithout ClubSeko FofanaStade Rennais FC

Forwards

Yan DiomandeRB LeipzigBazoumana TouréTSG 1899 HoffenheimSimon AdingraSunderland AFCParfait GuiagonRoyal Charleroi SCAmad DialloManchester UnitedEvann GuessandAston VillaNicolas PépéVillarreal CFAnge-Yoan BonnyInter MilanElye WahiEintracht FrankfurtOumar DiakitéStade Reims

SourcesFIFA Cote d'Ivoire World Cup squad announcement Wikipedia Ivory Coast 2026 squad template Transfermarkt Ivory Coast 2026 squad and player photos Wikidata and Transfermarkt social identifiers

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.2%

Sleepers22 teams40.3%Selected team

Long shots12 teams5.9%

#	Elo
10	1908#13	3.3%	10.7%	18.3%	31.2%	53.1%	90.6%
14	1871#17	3%	9.7%	16.8%	29.1%	50.3%	87.2%
23	1727#31	1.8%	6.3%	11.5%	21%	38.5%	71%
47	1438#47	0.3%	1.1%	2.3%	4.9%	10.5%	23%

Knockout pathCote d'Ivoire

Round of 32vs Japan39.3%
Win in 90 min 28.3%Reach stage 71%
Round of 16vs Colombia33%
Win in 90 min 23.8%Reach stage 38.5%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil29.4%
Win in 90 min 21.2%Reach stage 21%
Semi-finalvs Spain21.1%
Win in 90 min 15.2%Reach stage 11.5%
Finalvs Argentina19.8%
Win in 90 min 14.3%Reach stage 6.3%

Champion1.8%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance71%

Round of 1638.5%

Quarter-final21%

Semi-final11.5%

Final6.3%

Champion1.8%

Group E outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 1.8%current 1.8%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 6.3%current 6.3%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 71%current 71%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

Cote d'Ivoire35.3%AdvancevsArgentina64.7%Opponent advance

90 min win 30%90 min draw 14.9%90 min loss 55.1%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico43%31%19%91%

Korea Republic24%28%28%70%

Czechia21%26%30%64%

South Africa12%16%23%35%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%15%95%

Canada25%32%29%76%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%

Qatar8%12%21%25%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil46%32%17%95%

Morocco28%32%27%83%

Scotland17%23%33%60%

Haiti9%13%22%30%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany37%32%23%91%

Ecuador33%32%26%87%

Cote d'Ivoire22%26%34%71%

Curacao8%11%18%23%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands40%32%20%92%

Japan31%32%25%85%

Sweden19%23%32%62%

Tunisia10%13%22%31%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium39%31%21%88%

IR Iran29%30%27%78%

Egypt21%25%30%63%

New Zealand11%14%22%32%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%96%

Norway28%33%28%86%

Senegal18%24%36%67%

Iraq7%11%20%25%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England45%33%17%95%

Croatia32%34%24%88%

Panama14%20%34%51%

Ghana9%13%25%32%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03