Christian PulisicProfilePrimary attacking reference
Pulisic gives the USA its most reliable final-third shot creation, combining inside runs, set-piece threat, and transition speed.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotUSAUSA
Rank#20baseline #20
Elo1798#24
Champion2.2%baseline 2.2%
Leader gap3.2%
Final7.5%baseline 7.5%
Group advance73.4%baseline 73.4%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 82Scenario 85.8
Defense+1.5
Base 82Scenario 83.5
Form0
Base 82Scenario 82
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Tim ReamProfileCaptain and build-up organizer
Ream anchors the back line with passing calm, defensive positioning, and the leadership to settle a young tournament squad.
Tyler AdamsProfileBall-winning midfield anchor
Adams protects the centre of the pitch, wins second balls, and keeps the USA compact when the front line presses high.
Weston McKennieProfileBox-to-box connector
McKennie links pressure and attack with aerial power, late box arrivals, and the range to support both full-backs.
Folarin BalogunProfilePenalty-box runner
Balogun stretches back lines with depth runs, attacks early service, and gives the USA a direct central scoring lane.
Antonee RobinsonProfileLeft-sided engine
Robinson drives the USA's left side with recovery pace, overlapping width, and crossing volume from deep and advanced zones.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Matt TurnerNew England RevolutionMatt FreeseNew York City FCChris BradyChicago Fire FC
Defenders
Sergiño DestPSV EindhovenChris RichardsCrystal PalaceAntonee RobinsonFulham FCAuston TrustyCeltic FCMiles RobinsonFC CincinnatiTim ReamCharlotte FCAlex FreemanVillarreal CFMax ArfstenColumbus CrewMark McKenzieToulouseJoe ScallyBorussia Mönchengladbach
Midfielders
Tyler AdamsAFC BournemouthGio ReynaBorussia MönchengladbachWeston McKennieJuventusSebastian BerhalterVancouver Whitecaps FCCristian RoldanSeattle Sounders FCMalik TillmanBayer Leverkusen
Forwards
Ricardo PepiPSV EindhovenChristian PulisicAC MilanBrenden AaronsonLeeds UnitedHaji WrightCoventry CityFolarin BalogunAS MonacoTimothy WeahOlympique MarseilleAlejandro ZendejasClub América
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders12 teams43.2%
Sleepers22 teams40.3%Selected team
Long shots12 teams5.9%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 1852#18 | 2.5% | 8.1% | 14.2% | 24.9% | 43.5% | 76.4% | |
| 20 | 1798#24 | 2.2% | 7.5% | 13.2% | 23.4% | 41.4% | 73.4% | |
| 23 | 1823#20 | 2% | 6.8% | 12.1% | 21.6% | 38.7% | 69.4% | |
| 30 | 1800#23 | 1.4% | 5% | 9.2% | 17% | 31.3% | 58.2% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye29%27%25%76%
USA27%26%25%73%
Paraguay25%25%25%69%
Australia20%22%25%58%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%62%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%64%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%67%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.