Morocco reach the quarter-finals after a 3-0 win over Canada
The Atlas Lions are the first confirmed team in the quarter-final lane and now wait on France.
SB NationWorld Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotTurkiyeTUR
Rank#14baseline #14
Elo1852#18
Champion3%baseline 3%
Leader gap2.4%
Final9.8%baseline 9.8%
Group advance83.5%baseline 83.5%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 84Scenario 87.8
Defense+1.5
Base 84Scenario 85.5
Form0
Base 84Scenario 84
World Cup match center
World Cup reports, scores, bracket and scorers
Static source-backed tournament snapshot, not an official live feed.
World Cup reportsSource-backed tournament notes
France edge Paraguay 1-0 to set up France vs Morocco
The first confirmed quarter-final pairing gives the bracket board a clear top lane.
SB NationBrazil vs Norway and Mexico vs England headline July 5
Two Round of 16 fixtures decide the next quarter-final lane.
FOX SportsMbappe and Messi level at seven goals in the Golden Boot race
Haaland and Kane remain close behind as the knockout rounds tighten the scorer race.
FOX SportsScore wallRecent finals and current slate
CANCanada0-MARMorocco3
Morocco advanced to the quarter-finals.
Jul 4 · HoustonSource
PARParaguay0-FRAFrance1
France advanced and will face Morocco.
Jul 4 · PhiladelphiaSource
BRABrazilvsNORNorway
Winner moves into the Mexico/England lane.
Jul 5 · New York/New JerseySource
MEXMexicovsENGEngland
Winner faces Brazil or Norway.
Jul 5 · Mexico CitySource
Bracket boardQuarter-final lanes
FrancevsMorocco
France and Morocco are locked into the first visible quarter-final.
Brazil or NorwayvsMexico or England
July 5 winners complete this side of the bracket.
Portugal or SpainvsUnited States or Belgium
Two July 6 fixtures define this lane.
Argentina or EgyptvsSwitzerland or Colombia
July 7 decides the final listed lane.
Future fixturesNext knockout matches
New York/New Jersey
Mexico City
New York/New Jersey
Seattle
Atlanta
Vancouver
Top scorersGolden Boot snapshot
#1Kylian MbappeFrance7
#1Lionel MessiArgentina7
#3Harry KaneEngland5
#3Erling HaalandNorway5
#5Mikel OyarzabalSpain4
#5Ousmane DembeleFrance4
#5Vinicius JuniorBrazil4
SourcesSnapshot evidence
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Hakan ÇalhanoğluProfileCaptain and midfield metronome
Çalhanoğlu gives Turkiye its passing rhythm, set-piece precision, and a captain who can manage the tempo from deep midfield.
Arda GülerProfileCreative attacking midfielder
Güler gives Turkiye elite final-third invention, combining disguised passes, left-footed shooting, and line-breaking carries.
Kenan YıldızProfileLeft-side attacking reference
Yıldız stretches and attacks from the left, giving Turkiye a high-upside dribbler who can finish moves or draw extra coverage.
Ferdi KadıoğluProfileTwo-way full-back
Kadıoğlu gives Turkiye a full-back who can carry through pressure, invert into midfield, and still recover defensive width.
Merih DemiralProfileBox-defending centre-back
Demiral anchors Turkiye's defensive duels, adding aerial protection and the aggression needed when the back line sits deeper.
Uğurcan ÇakırProfileShot-stopping goalkeeper
Çakır gives Turkiye a high-reaction goalkeeper, useful in matches where the attacking shape leaves transition shots to solve.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Uğurcan ÇakırGalatasarayAltay BayındırManchester UnitedMert GünokFenerbahce
Defenders
Ozan KabakTSG 1899 HoffenheimMerih DemiralAl-Ahli SFCAbdülkerim BardakcıGalatasarayÇağlar SöyüncüFenerbahceSamet AkaydinTrabzonsporFerdi KadıoğluBrighton & Hove AlbionEren ElmalıGalatasarayZeki ÇelikWithout ClubMert MüldürFenerbahce
Midfielders
Hakan ÇalhanoğluInter Milanİsmail YüksekFenerbahceSalih ÖzcanWithout ClubKaan AyhanGalatasarayOrkun KökçüBesiktas JKArda GülerReal MadridCan UzunEintracht Frankfurt
Forwards
Kenan YıldızJuventus FCBarış Alper YılmazGalatasarayKerem AktürkoğluFenerbahceYunus AkgünGalatasarayOğuz AydınFenerbahceİrfan Can KahveciFenerbahceDeniz GülFC Porto
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders13 teams46.2%Selected team
Sleepers21 teams37.3%
Long shots12 teams5.9%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 1852#18 | 3% | 9.8% | 16.7% | 28.5% | 48.8% | 83.5% | |
| 22 | 1823#20 | 2% | 6.8% | 12.1% | 21.7% | 38.8% | 69.7% | |
| 25 | 1798#24 | 1.8% | 6.1% | 10.9% | 19.8% | 35.8% | 65.2% | |
| 30 | 1800#23 | 1.4% | 5% | 9.2% | 17% | 31.5% | 58.5% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye34%29%23%83%
Paraguay24%25%26%70%
USA22%24%26%65%
Australia20%22%25%59%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%62%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%64%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%68%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.