Mathew RyanProfileGoalkeeper and back-line organiser
Ryan gives Australia a tournament-tested organiser in goal, setting the defensive line and keeping the team calm during long pressure spells.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotAustraliaAUS
Rank#23baseline #23
Elo1800#23
Champion1.9%baseline 1.9%
Leader gap3.5%
Final6.4%baseline 6.4%
Group advance67%baseline 67%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 82Scenario 85.8
Defense+1.5
Base 82Scenario 83.5
Form0
Base 82Scenario 82
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Harry SouttarProfileAerial defensive anchor
Souttar changes Australia's box defence with height, set-piece reach, and the ability to clear repeated direct attacks.
Jackson IrvineProfileMidfield tempo connector
Irvine links the pressing and possession phases, giving Australia a high-work-rate midfielder who can arrive late in the box.
Jordan BosProfileLeft-side carrier
Bos gives Australia a left-side runner who can advance the ball from deep, overlap, and turn conservative phases into territory.
Nestory IrankundaProfileDirect winger
Irankunda adds Australia's most direct wide threat, attacking isolated defenders with pace and early shooting confidence.
Cristian VolpatoProfileCreative interior
Volpato gives Australia a technical interior option, useful between lines when the match calls for cleaner final-third combinations.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Mathew RyanLevante UDPatrick BeachMelbourne CityPaul IzzoRanders FC
Defenders
Alessandro CircatiParma Calcio 1913Lucas HerringtonColorado RapidsHarry SouttarLeicester CityCameron BurgessSwansea CityMilos DegenekAPOEL FCJordan BosFeyenoordAziz BehichMelbourne CityJacob ItalianoGrazer AK 1902Jason GeriaAlbirex Niigata
Midfielders
Aiden O'NeillNew York City FCKai TrewinNew York City FCPaul Okon-EngstlerSydney FCCammy DevlinHeart of Midlothian FCConnor MetcalfeFC St. PauliJackson IrvineFC St. PauliAjdin HrusticHeracles AlmeloCristian VolpatoUS Sassuolo
Forwards
Nishan VelupillayMelbourne VictoryAwer MabilCD CastellónMathew LeckieMelbourne CityNestory IrankundaWatford FCMohamed TouréNorwich CityTete YengiMachida Zelvia
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders12 teams43.2%
Sleepers22 teams40.3%Selected team
Long shots12 teams5.9%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 1852#18 | 2.4% | 8.1% | 14.2% | 24.8% | 43.4% | 76.3% | |
| 22 | 1823#20 | 2% | 6.8% | 12.1% | 21.6% | 38.6% | 69.3% | |
| 23 | 1800#23 | 1.9% | 6.4% | 11.4% | 20.6% | 37% | 67% | |
| 26 | 1798#24 | 1.8% | 6% | 10.9% | 19.7% | 35.6% | 64.8% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye29%27%24%76%
Paraguay25%25%25%69%
Australia24%24%25%67%
USA23%24%25%65%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%62%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%64%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%67%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.