World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotScotlandSCO

Rank#26baseline #26

Elo1745#28

Champion1.7%baseline 1.7%

Leader gap3.7%

Final5.9%baseline 5.9%

Group advance67.1%baseline 67.1%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 80Scenario 83.8

Defense+1.5

Base 80Scenario 81.5

Form0

Base 80Scenario 80

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

DefendersTottenham Hotspur

Andrew RobertsonProfileCaptain and left-sided leader

Robertson leads Scotland's left side with defensive intensity, early crossing, and the authority to organize a compact back line.

MidfieldersSSC Napoli

Scott McTominayProfileBox-crashing midfield scorer

McTominay gives Scotland late box runs, set-piece presence, and the scoring punch that can turn low-volume attacks into goals.

MidfieldersAston Villa

John McGinnProfileMidfield pressure valve

McGinn helps Scotland escape pressure with body strength, tempo changes, and enough final-third timing to support the forwards.

DefendersCeltic FC

Kieran TierneyProfileHybrid left centre-back

Tierney lets Scotland shift between a back three and a back four, adding recovery defending and aggressive left-sided carrying.

ForwardsAFC Bournemouth

Ben Gannon-DoakProfileDirect wide accelerator

Gannon-Doak gives Scotland one-v-one acceleration and vertical threat, stretching games when they need a more direct outlet.

ForwardsTorino FC

Ché AdamsProfileMobile central forward

Adams gives Scotland a mobile reference up front, pressing centre-backs, running channels, and linking midfield runners.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Angus GunnWithout ClubLiam KellyRangers FCCraig GordonHeart of Midlothian FC

Defenders

Scott McKennaGNK Dinamo ZagrebJack HendryWithout ClubJohn SouttarRangers FCDominic HyamWrexham AFCGrant HanleyHibernian FCKieran TierneyCeltic FCAndrew RobertsonTottenham HotspurAaron HickeyBrentford FCNathan PattersonEverton FCAnthony RalstonCeltic FC

Midfielders

Scott McTominaySSC NapoliLewis FergusonBologna FC 1909John McGinnAston VillaRyan ChristieAFC BournemouthTyler FletcherManchester UnitedKenny McLeanNorwich City

Forwards

Findlay CurtisRangers FCBen Gannon-DoakAFC BournemouthGeorge HirstIpswich TownChé AdamsTorino FCLawrence ShanklandRangers FCRoss StewartWithout ClubLyndon DykesCharlton Athletic

SourcesFIFA Scotland World Cup squad announcement Scottish FA men's A squad Wikipedia Scotland 2026 squad template Transfermarkt Scotland 2026 squad and player photos Wikidata social identifiers

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.2%

Sleepers22 teams40.3%Selected team

Long shots12 teams5.9%

#	Elo
4	2031#5	4.1%	12.8%	21.1%	34.8%	57.3%	94.2%
17	1886#15	2.6%	8.7%	15.2%	26.6%	46.6%	81.8%
26	1745#28	1.7%	5.9%	10.8%	19.8%	36.3%	67.1%
45	1517#46	0.4%	1.6%	3.2%	6.5%	13.5%	28.5%

Knockout pathScotland

Round of 32vs Japan39%
Win in 90 min 28.1%Reach stage 67.1%
Round of 16vs Colombia32.7%
Win in 90 min 23.5%Reach stage 36.3%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil29.2%
Win in 90 min 21%Reach stage 19.8%
Semi-finalvs Spain20.9%
Win in 90 min 15%Reach stage 10.8%
Finalvs Argentina19.6%
Win in 90 min 14.1%Reach stage 5.9%

Champion1.7%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance67.1%

Round of 1636.3%

Quarter-final19.8%

Semi-final10.8%

Final5.9%

Champion1.7%

Group C outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 1.7%current 1.7%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 5.9%current 5.9%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 67.1%current 67.1%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

Scotland35.2%AdvancevsArgentina64.8%Opponent advance

90 min win 30%90 min draw 14.9%90 min loss 55.1%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico43%31%19%91%

Korea Republic24%28%28%70%

Czechia21%26%30%64%

South Africa12%16%23%35%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%15%95%

Canada25%32%29%76%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%

Qatar8%12%21%25%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil44%32%18%94%

Morocco27%31%28%82%

Scotland20%25%33%67%

Haiti9%13%21%28%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany39%33%22%91%

Ecuador34%33%24%88%

Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%

Curacao8%11%19%24%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands40%32%20%92%

Japan31%32%25%85%

Sweden19%23%32%62%

Tunisia10%13%22%31%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium39%31%21%88%

IR Iran29%30%27%78%

Egypt21%25%30%63%

New Zealand11%14%22%32%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%96%

Norway28%33%28%86%

Senegal18%24%36%67%

Iraq7%11%20%25%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England45%33%17%95%

Croatia32%34%24%88%

Panama14%20%34%51%

Ghana9%13%25%32%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03