World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotHaitiHAI

Rank#40baseline #40

Elo1517#46

Champion0.6%baseline 0.6%

Leader gap4.8%

Final2.2%baseline 2.2%

Group advance35.5%baseline 35.5%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 72Scenario 75.8

Defense+1.5

Base 72Scenario 73.5

Form0

Base 72Scenario 72

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

GoalkeepersWithout Club

Johny PlacideProfileCaptain and defensive organizer

Placide gives Haiti an experienced voice in goal, organizing the block and managing pressure moments in tournament games.

DefendersAngers SCO

Carlens ArcusProfileRight-sided defensive engine

Arcus gives Haiti a durable right-back profile with recovery running, crossing options, and the ability to defend long spells.

MidfieldersWolverhampton Wanderers

Jean-Ricner BellegardeProfileMidfield progressor

Bellegarde is Haiti's most valuable progression piece, carrying out of pressure and linking defensive recoveries to the front line.

ForwardsSunderland AFC

Wilson IsidorProfileMobile centre-forward

Isidor adds penalty-box movement and vertical running, giving Haiti a forward who can stretch centre-backs and attack early service.

ForwardsAEK Athens

Frantzdy PierrotProfilePhysical penalty-box target

Pierrot gives Haiti a powerful central reference for direct attacks, second balls, and set-piece pressure.

ForwardsEsteghlal FC

Duckens NazonProfileExperienced scoring threat

Nazon brings finishing instincts and senior-tournament experience, giving Haiti another route to goals when games open up.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Alexandre PierreFC Sochaux-MontbéliardJohny PlacideWithout ClubJosué DuvergerFC Cosmos Koblenz

Defenders

Hannes DelcroixFC LuganoJean-Kévin DuverneFC NantesRicardo AdéLDU QuitoGarven MetusalaColorado Springs Switchbacks FCKeeto ThermoncyBSC Young Boys U21Martin ExpérienceWithout ClubDuke LacroixColorado Springs Switchbacks FCCarlens ArcusAngers SCOWilguens PaugainZulte Waregem

Midfielders

Danley Jean JacquesPhiladelphia UnionDominique SimonFK PardubiceCarl SaintéEl Paso Locomotive FCWoodensky PierreViolette Athletic ClubJean-Ricner BellegardeWolverhampton Wanderers

Forwards

Derrick Etienne Jr.Toronto FCRuben ProvidenceAlmere City FCJosué CasimirAJ AuxerreLouicius DeedsonFC DallasWilson IsidorSunderland AFCLenny JosephFerencvárosi TCFrantzdy PierrotAEK AthensDuckens NazonEsteghlal FCYassin FortunéFC Vizela

SourcesFIFA Haiti World Cup squad announcement FIFA Haiti squad page Wikipedia Haiti 2026 squad template Transfermarkt Haiti 2026 squad and player photos Wikidata social identifiers

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.3%

Sleepers22 teams40.1%

Long shots12 teams6%Selected team

#	Elo
4	2031#5	4.1%	12.8%	21.1%	34.7%	57.2%	94%
17	1886#15	2.6%	8.7%	15.2%	26.6%	46.5%	81.7%
33	1745#28	1.3%	4.6%	8.6%	16.2%	30.5%	58%
40	1517#46	0.6%	2.2%	4.3%	8.6%	17.3%	35.5%

Knockout pathHaiti

Round of 32vs Japan24.4%
Win in 90 min 17.6%Reach stage 35.5%
Round of 16vs Colombia19.7%
Win in 90 min 14.2%Reach stage 17.3%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil17.2%
Win in 90 min 12.4%Reach stage 8.6%
Semi-finalvs Spain11.8%
Win in 90 min 8.5%Reach stage 4.3%
Finalvs Argentina10.9%
Win in 90 min 7.8%Reach stage 2.2%

Champion0.6%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance35.5%

Round of 1617.3%

Quarter-final8.6%

Semi-final4.3%

Final2.2%

Champion0.6%

Group C outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 0.6%current 0.6%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 2.2%current 2.2%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 35.5%current 35.5%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

Haiti32.8%AdvancevsArgentina67.2%Opponent advance

90 min win 27.9%90 min draw 14.9%90 min loss 57.2%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico43%31%19%91%

Korea Republic24%28%28%70%

Czechia21%26%30%64%

South Africa12%16%23%35%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%15%95%

Canada25%32%29%76%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%

Qatar8%12%21%25%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil45%32%18%94%

Morocco28%31%27%82%

Scotland17%22%32%58%

Haiti11%15%24%35%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany39%33%22%91%

Ecuador34%33%24%88%

Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%

Curacao8%11%19%24%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands40%32%20%92%

Japan31%32%25%85%

Sweden19%23%32%62%

Tunisia10%13%22%31%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium39%31%21%88%

IR Iran29%30%27%78%

Egypt21%25%30%64%

New Zealand11%14%22%32%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%96%

Norway28%33%28%86%

Senegal18%24%36%68%

Iraq7%11%20%25%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England45%33%17%95%

Croatia32%34%24%88%

Panama14%20%34%51%

Ghana9%13%25%32%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03