Vinícius Jr.ProfilePrimary left-sided match winner
Vinícius Jr. gives Brazil elite one-v-one pressure, transition speed, and the most direct route from midfield recovery to a shot.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotBrazilBRA
Rank#4baseline #4
Elo2031#5
Champion4.6%baseline 4.6%
Leader gap0.8%
Final14.1%baseline 14.1%
Group advance96.2%baseline 96.2%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 90Scenario 93.8
Defense+1.5
Base 90Scenario 91.5
Form0
Base 90Scenario 90
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
NeymarProfileCreative final-third connector
Neymar remains Brazil's high-touch connector between midfield and the box, adding disguise, set-piece quality, and penalty-area invention.
MarquinhosProfileBack-line organizer
Marquinhos gives Brazil calm rest defense, aerial security, and the authority to organize spacing when the full-backs advance.
CasemiroProfileDefensive midfield reference
Casemiro protects the centre, wins second balls, and gives Brazil a set-piece target plus an experienced voice in tournament pressure.
AlissonProfileElite goalkeeping floor
Alisson raises Brazil's defensive floor with shot stopping, box command, and calm distribution into the first phase.
EndrickProfileExplosive young finisher
Endrick adds penalty-box aggression, sharp left-footed finishing, and a vertical threat that can change the rhythm from the bench or start.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
AlissonLiverpool FCEderson M.FenerbahceWevertonGremio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense
Defenders
GabrielArsenal FCMarquinhosParis Saint-GermainAlex SandroCR FlamengoDanilo LuizCR FlamengoBremerJuventus FCLéo PereiraCR FlamengoDouglas SantosZenit St. PetersburgIbañezAl-Ahli SFC
Midfielders
Éderson S.Atalanta BCCasemiroWithout ClubBruno GuimarãesNewcastle UnitedFabinhoWithout ClubDanilo SantosBotafogo de Futebol e RegatasPaquetáCR Flamengo
Forwards
Vinícius Jr.Real MadridCunhaManchester UnitedNeymarSantos FCRaphinhaFC BarcelonaEndrickReal MadridLuiz HenriqueZenit St. PetersburgMartinelliArsenal FCIgor ThiagoBrentford FCRayanAFC Bournemouth
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders12 teams43.6%Selected team
Sleepers22 teams39.9%
Long shots12 teams5.9%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2031#5 | 4.6% | 14.1% | 22.9% | 37% | 59.8% | 96.2% | |
| 17 | 1886#15 | 2.6% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 26.9% | 47.1% | 82.7% | |
| 33 | 1745#28 | 1.3% | 4.7% | 8.8% | 16.6% | 31.2% | 59.2% | |
| 45 | 1517#46 | 0.4% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 6.7% | 13.9% | 29.2% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil50%31%15%96%
Morocco26%33%28%83%
Scotland16%23%34%59%
Haiti8%13%23%29%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%63%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%64%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%41%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%68%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.