World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotSwitzerlandSUI

Rank#6baseline #6

Elo1943#9

Champion4%baseline 4%

Leader gap1.4%

Final12.7%baseline 12.7%

Group advance97.2%baseline 97.2%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 87Scenario 90.8

Defense+1.5

Base 87Scenario 88.5

Form0

Base 87Scenario 87

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

MidfieldersAFC Sunderland

Granit XhakaProfileCaptain and tempo setter

Xhaka gives Switzerland its passing rhythm, leadership, and long-range progression from the base of midfield.

DefendersFC Internazionale

Manuel AkanjiProfileDefensive leader

Akanji anchors the centre-back group with recovery speed, duel strength, and the first pass needed to escape pressure.

MidfieldersAS Monaco

Denis ZakariaProfileMidfield ball-winner

Zakaria adds vertical power and defensive range, giving Switzerland a transition shield next to its passing core.

GoalkeepersBorussia Dortmund

Gregor KobelProfileElite shot-stopper

Kobel gives Switzerland a high-ceiling goalkeeper profile with command, reflexes, and Champions League-level shot stopping.

ForwardsStade Rennais FC

Breel EmboloProfileLead centre-forward

Embolo gives the attack a central reference, carrying defenders, attacking crosses, and opening lanes for runners.

ForwardsFC Sevilla

Ruben VargasProfileDirect wide runner

Vargas stretches the front line with direct carries, diagonal runs, and enough final-third quality to punish open games.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Marvin KellerBSC Young BoysGregor KobelBorussia DortmundYvon MvogoFC Lorient

Defenders

Manuel AkanjiFC InternazionaleAurèle AmendaEintracht FrankfurtEray CömertValencia CFNico ElvediVfL Borussia MönchengladbachLuca JaquezVfB StuttgartMiro MuheimHamburger SVRicardo RodriguezReal Betis BalompiéSilvan WidmerFSV Mainz 05

Midfielders

Michel AebischerPisa Sporting ClubRemo FreulerBologna FCArdon JashariAC MilanJohan ManzambiSC FreiburgFabian RiederFC AugsburgDjibril SowFC SevillaGranit XhakaAFC SunderlandDenis ZakariaAS Monaco

Forwards

Zeki AmdouniBurnley FCBreel EmboloStade Rennais FCChristian FassnachtBSC Young BoysCedric IttenFortuna DüsseldorfDan NdoyeNottingham Forest FCNoah OkaforLeeds United FCRuben VargasFC Sevilla

SourcesSwiss Football Association World Cup squad PDF UEFA Switzerland World Cup squad context Transfermarkt Switzerland 2026 squad and player photos Wikidata social identifiers

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.5%Selected team

Sleepers22 teams40%

Long shots12 teams5.9%

#	Elo
6	1943#9	4%	12.7%	21.2%	35.3%	58.6%	97.2%
25	1764#25	1.8%	6.2%	11.5%	21.5%	40.1%	75.3%
36	1605#39	1%	3.7%	7.2%	14.2%	28%	56.2%
48	1411#48	0.3%	1%	2.2%	4.9%	10.8%	24.3%

Knockout pathSwitzerland

Round of 32vs Morocco61%
Win in 90 min 43.9%Reach stage 97.2%
Round of 16vs Colombia52.2%
Win in 90 min 37.6%Reach stage 58.6%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil48.1%
Win in 90 min 34.6%Reach stage 35.3%
Semi-finalvs Spain37.3%
Win in 90 min 26.9%Reach stage 21.2%
Finalvs Argentina35.4%
Win in 90 min 25.5%Reach stage 12.7%

Champion4%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance97.2%

Round of 1658.6%

Quarter-final35.3%

Semi-final21.2%

Final12.7%

Champion4%

Group B outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 4%current 4%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 12.7%current 12.7%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 97.2%current 97.2%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

Switzerland41.2%AdvancevsArgentina58.8%Opponent advance

90 min win 32.9%90 min draw 20.1%90 min loss 47%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico43%31%19%91%

Korea Republic24%28%28%70%

Czechia21%26%30%64%

South Africa12%16%23%35%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland54%31%13%97%

Canada23%33%30%75%

Bosnia and Herzegovina16%24%35%56%

Qatar7%12%22%24%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil46%32%17%95%

Morocco28%32%27%83%

Scotland17%23%33%60%

Haiti9%13%22%30%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany39%33%22%91%

Ecuador34%33%24%88%

Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%

Curacao8%11%19%24%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands40%32%20%92%

Japan31%32%25%85%

Sweden19%23%32%63%

Tunisia10%13%22%31%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium39%31%21%88%

IR Iran29%30%27%78%

Egypt21%25%30%64%

New Zealand11%14%22%32%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%41%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%96%

Norway28%33%28%86%

Senegal18%24%36%68%

Iraq7%11%20%25%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England45%33%17%95%

Croatia32%34%24%88%

Panama14%20%34%51%

Ghana9%13%25%32%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03