World Cup win probability calculator

Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.

48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds

Selected team snapshotQatarQAT

Rank#47baseline #47

Elo1411#48

Champion0.3%baseline 0.3%

Leader gap5.1%

Final1.4%baseline 1.4%

Group advance29.6%baseline 29.6%

Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario

Attack+3.8

Base 68Scenario 71.8

Defense+1.5

Base 68Scenario 69.5

Form0

Base 68Scenario 68

Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team

Key players

ForwardsAl-Sadd SC

Akram AfifProfilePrimary creator

Afif is Qatar's main chance creator, combining left-side carries, final passes, and set-piece quality around Almoez Ali.

ForwardsAl-Duhail SC

Almoez AliProfilePenalty-box finisher

Ali gives Qatar a proven central reference, attacking crosses and second balls while keeping the front line connected.

ForwardsAl-Sadd SC

Hassan Al-HaydosProfileVeteran captain

Al-Haydos supplies game management, final-third calm, and leadership in a squad built around experienced attacking pieces.

GoalkeepersAl-Sadd SC

Meshaal BarshamProfileStarting keeper profile

Barsham anchors the goalkeeper group with tournament experience and reflex saves when Qatar defend deeper phases.

DefendersAl-Wakrah SC

Lucas MendesProfileDefensive organizer

Mendes adds left-footed defensive balance, aerial coverage, and a calmer first pass for Qatar's back line.

MidfieldersAl-Rayyan SC

Jassem GaberProfileMidfield ball-winner

Gaber helps Qatar contest central space, recover loose balls, and keep the midfield compact against faster transitions.

Full squad26

Goalkeepers

Salah ZakariaAl-Duhail SCMeshaal BarshamAl-Sadd SCMahmoud AbunadaAl-Rayyan SC

Defenders

Issa LayeAl-Arabi SCBoualem KhoukhiAl-Sadd SCPedro MiguelAl-Sadd SCSultan Al-BrakeAl-Duhail SCAl-Hashmi Al-HussainAl-Arabi SCAyoub Al-OuiAl-Gharafa SCHomam AhmedCultural LeonesaLucas MendesAl-Wakrah SC

Midfielders

Ahmed FathyAl-Arabi SCJassem GaberAl-Rayyan SCAssim MadiboAl-Wakrah SCAbdulaziz HatemAl-Rayyan SCKarim BoudiafAl-Duhail SCMohamed ManaiAl-Shamal SC

Forwards

Almoez AliAl-Duhail SCAkram AfifAl-Sadd SCTahsin JamshidAl-Duhail SCHassan Al-HaydosAl-Sadd SCAhmed Al-GanehiAl-Gharafa SCAhmed AlaaeldinAl-Rayyan SCMohammed MuntariAl-Gharafa SCYusuf AbdurisagAl-Wakrah SCEdmilson JuniorAl-Duhail SC

SourcesQatar Football Association 26-player World Cup squad Wikipedia Qatar 2026 squad Transfermarkt Qatar 2026 squad and player photos Wikidata social identifiers

Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view

Champion chance

Field distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability

Probability share

Favorites2 teams10.6%

Contenders12 teams43.2%

Sleepers22 teams40.3%

Long shots12 teams5.9%Selected team

#	Elo
9	1943#9	3.5%	11.4%	19.3%	32.8%	55.7%	94.7%
25	1764#25	1.8%	6.2%	11.4%	21.2%	39.6%	74.4%
36	1605#39	1%	3.6%	7.1%	14%	27.6%	55.3%
47	1411#48	0.3%	1.4%	2.9%	6.3%	13.5%	29.6%

Knockout pathQatar

Round of 32vs Japan16.5%
Win in 90 min 11.9%Reach stage 29.6%
Round of 16vs Colombia13.1%
Win in 90 min 9.4%Reach stage 13.5%
Quarter-finalvs Brazil11.3%
Win in 90 min 8.1%Reach stage 6.3%
Semi-finalvs Spain7.6%
Win in 90 min 5.5%Reach stage 2.9%
Finalvs Argentina7%
Win in 90 min 5%Reach stage 1.4%

Champion0.3%

Advancement funnelSelected team's route probability by stage

Group advance29.6%

Round of 1613.5%

Quarter-final6.3%

Semi-final2.9%

Final1.4%

Champion0.3%

Group B outlookSelected team's group-stage route

Scenario impactCurrent settings vs default factors for the selected team

Championdelta 0 pts

baseline 0.3%current 0.3%

Finaldelta 0 pts

baseline 1.4%current 1.4%

Group advancedelta 0 pts

baseline 29.6%current 29.6%

Matchup labSingle-game probabilities using the current scenario

Opponent

Qatar31.8%AdvancevsArgentina68.2%Opponent advance

90 min win 27.1%90 min draw 14.9%90 min loss 58%

Advance includes extra time and penalties after draws.

Percentages estimate probability of advancing from each stage in this local model.

Group stage matrix

Group A

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Mexico43%31%19%91%

Korea Republic24%28%28%70%

Czechia21%26%30%64%

South Africa12%16%23%35%

Group B

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Switzerland49%31%16%95%

Canada25%31%28%74%

Bosnia and Herzegovina17%23%33%55%

Qatar10%14%23%30%

Group C

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Brazil46%32%17%95%

Morocco28%32%27%83%

Scotland17%23%33%60%

Haiti9%13%22%30%

Group D

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Turkiye30%27%24%78%

Paraguay26%26%25%71%

USA24%24%26%67%

Australia21%22%25%60%

Group E

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Germany39%33%22%91%

Ecuador34%33%24%88%

Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%

Curacao8%11%19%24%

Group F

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Netherlands40%32%20%92%

Japan31%32%25%85%

Sweden19%23%32%62%

Tunisia10%13%22%31%

Group G

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Belgium39%31%21%88%

IR Iran29%30%27%78%

Egypt21%25%30%64%

New Zealand11%14%22%32%

Group H

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Spain56%30%11%97%

Uruguay23%35%28%81%

Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%

Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%

Group I

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

France47%32%17%96%

Norway28%33%28%86%

Senegal18%24%36%68%

Iraq7%11%20%25%

Group J

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Argentina57%29%11%98%

Austria19%31%31%74%

Algeria15%25%33%61%

Jordan9%15%25%34%

Group K

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

Portugal38%33%21%92%

Colombia36%33%22%91%

Congo DR15%20%32%54%

Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%

Group L

Team1st2nd3rdAdv.

England45%33%17%95%

Croatia32%34%24%88%

Panama14%20%34%51%

Ghana9%13%25%32%

Model transparency

ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.

FIFA groups FIFA 2026 format Elo ratings FIFA ranking update 2026-06-11Accessed 2026-07-03