Alphonso DaviesProfileCaptain and left-side accelerator
Davies is Canada's captain and most explosive left-side outlet, stretching blocks with recovery speed, carry distance, and transition threat.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotCanadaCAN
Rank#20baseline #20
Elo1764#25
Champion2.2%baseline 2.2%
Leader gap3.2%
Final7.5%baseline 7.5%
Group advance81.7%baseline 81.7%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 81Scenario 84.8
Defense+1.5
Base 81Scenario 82.5
Form0
Base 81Scenario 81
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Jonathan DavidProfileAll-time scoring reference
David gives Canada a central finisher with elite box timing and enough link play to keep counters connected after the first pass.
Stephen EustaquioProfileMidfield tempo setter
Eustaquio is the possession reference in midfield, balancing Canada with passing range, set-piece delivery, and defensive positioning.
Tajon BuchananProfileDirect wide attacker
Buchanan adds one-v-one aggression and vertical carries, giving Canada another way to attack space before defenses are set.
Moïse BombitoProfileRecovery-speed centre-back
Bombito gives Canada recovery pace and duel coverage behind an ambitious press, lowering the risk when the team pushes numbers forward.
Maxime CrépeauProfileExperienced goalkeeper
Crépeau gives the goalkeeping group senior tournament experience, shot-stopping authority, and communication across a changing back line.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Dayne St. ClairInter Miami CFMaxime CrépeauOrlando City SCOwen GoodmanCrystal Palace
Defenders
Moïse BombitoOGC NiceAlfie JonesMiddlesbrough FCDerek CorneliusOlympique MarseilleJoel WatermanChicago Fire FCLuc De FougerollesFulham FC U21Alphonso DaviesBayern MunichAlistair JohnstonCeltic FCRichie LaryeaToronto FC
Midfielders
Niko SigurHNK Hajduk SplitIsmaël KonéUS SassuoloNathan-Dylan SalibaRSC AnderlechtStephen EustaquioFC PortoJonathan OsorioToronto FCMathieu ChoinièreLos Angeles FCAli AhmedNorwich City
Forwards
Liam MillarHull CityJacob ShaffelburgLos Angeles FCJayden NelsonAustin FCTajon BuchananVillarreal CFJonathan DavidJuventus FCPromise DavidUnion Saint-GilloiseTani OluwaseyiVillarreal CFCyle LarinSouthampton FC
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders12 teams43.1%
Sleepers22 teams40.5%Selected team
Long shots12 teams5.8%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 1943#9 | 3.5% | 11.4% | 19.4% | 32.9% | 55.8% | 94.8% | |
| 20 | 1764#25 | 2.2% | 7.5% | 13.5% | 24.6% | 44.7% | 81.7% | |
| 36 | 1605#39 | 1% | 3.6% | 7.1% | 14% | 27.6% | 55.3% | |
| 48 | 1411#48 | 0.2% | 1% | 2.2% | 4.8% | 10.5% | 23.8% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland47%32%16%95%
Canada29%34%27%82%
Bosnia and Herzegovina16%23%36%55%
Qatar8%12%21%24%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%62%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%64%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%67%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.