Edin DžekoProfileCaptain and all-time scorer
Džeko remains the emotional and tactical reference point, giving Bosnia and Herzegovina hold-up play, box craft, and late-game leadership.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotBosnia and HerzegovinaBIH
Rank#34baseline #34
Elo1605#39
Champion1.3%baseline 1.3%
Leader gap4.1%
Final4.7%baseline 4.7%
Group advance64%baseline 64%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 75Scenario 78.8
Defense+1.5
Base 75Scenario 76.5
Form0
Base 75Scenario 75
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Ermedin DemirovićProfilePrime-age forward runner
Demirović gives the front line pressing work, central running, and the ability to attack second balls around Džeko or as the lead forward.
Sead KolašinacProfileSenior defensive anchor
Kolašinac brings physical defending, tournament calm, and the authority to keep Bosnia's back line compact under pressure.
Tarik MuharemovićProfileModern centre-back
Muharemović gives Bosnia and Herzegovina size, left-side buildup options, and the recovery tools needed against faster transition teams.
Benjamin TahirovićProfileMidfield connector
Tahirović helps connect the first pass with forward runners, giving Bosnia a younger midfield profile for tempo and defensive coverage.
Kerim AlajbegovićProfileYoung wide upside
Alajbegović gives Bosnia a high-upside wide profile with direct carries and enough final-third courage to change the attacking rhythm.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Nikola VasiljWithout ClubMartin ZlomislićQarabağ FKMladen JurkasFK Borac Banja Luka
Defenders
Tarik MuharemovićUS SassuoloSead KolašinacAtalanta BCStjepan RadeljićGNK Dinamo ZagrebNikola KatićFC Schalke 04Nihad MujakićFK Partizan BelgradeDennis HadžikadunićWithout ClubAmar DedićSL BenficaArjan MalićSK Sturm Graz
Midfielders
Amir HadžiahmetovićBesiktas JKIvan ŠunjićPafos FCDženis BurnićWithout ClubBenjamin TahirovićBröndby IFArmin GigovićBSC Young BoysIvan BašićFC AstanaAmar MemićFC Viktoria PlzenErmin MahmićFC Slovan Liberec
Forwards
Kerim AlajbegovićBayer 04 LeverkusenEsmir BajraktarevićPSV EindhovenErmedin DemirovićVfB StuttgartHaris TabakovićTSG 1899 HoffenheimJovo LukićFC Universitatea ClujSamed BaždarReal ZaragozaEdin DžekoWithout Club
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders12 teams43.1%
Sleepers22 teams40.5%Selected team
Long shots12 teams5.8%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 1943#9 | 3.5% | 11.4% | 19.3% | 32.9% | 55.8% | 94.7% | |
| 25 | 1764#25 | 1.8% | 6.2% | 11.4% | 21.2% | 39.5% | 74.3% | |
| 34 | 1605#39 | 1.3% | 4.7% | 8.9% | 17.1% | 32.8% | 64% | |
| 48 | 1411#48 | 0.2% | 1% | 2.2% | 4.8% | 10.5% | 23.8% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland48%31%16%95%
Canada25%31%30%74%
Bosnia and Herzegovina20%26%34%64%
Qatar8%12%20%24%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%62%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%63%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%67%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.