Ronwen WilliamsProfileCaptain and penalty-shot stopper
Williams gives Bafana Bafana a captain in goal, elite tournament shot-stopping, and a calm reference for high-variance knockout scenarios.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotSouth AfricaRSA
Rank#39baseline #39
Elo1559#44
Champion0.6%baseline 0.6%
Leader gap4.8%
Final2.4%baseline 2.4%
Group advance40.4%baseline 40.4%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 73Scenario 76.8
Defense+1.5
Base 73Scenario 74.5
Form0
Base 73Scenario 73
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Teboho MokoenaProfileSet-piece midfield engine
Mokoena raises South Africa's midfield floor with ball-winning, vertical passing, and set-piece range that can swing tight group matches.
Lyle FosterProfilePremier League-caliber striker
Foster gives the attack a higher-end striker profile, transition running, and penalty-box reference against deeper defensive blocks.
Relebohile MofokengProfileYoung creative winger
Mofokeng adds one-v-one invention and a younger upside profile, giving South Africa a way to change tempo from wide areas.
Themba ZwaneProfileVeteran final-third connector
Zwane's timing between the lines helps South Africa turn midfield spells into real chances instead of low-value possession.
Khuliso MudauProfileTwo-way right-back
Mudau gives the right side defensive recovery pace and overlap timing, useful when South Africa need width without losing rest defense.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Sipho ChaineOrlando PiratesRonwen WilliamsMamelodi Sundowns FCRicardo GossMamelodi Sundowns FC
Defenders
Mbekezeli MbokaziChicago Fire FCIme OkonHannover 96Olwethu MakhanyaPhiladelphia UnionNkosinathi SibisiOrlando PiratesKhulumani NdamaneMamelodi Sundowns FCSamukele KabiniMolde FKAubrey ModibaMamelodi Sundowns FCBradley CrossKaizer ChiefsThabang MatuludiPolokwane City FCKhuliso MudauMamelodi Sundowns FCKamogelo SebelebeleOrlando Pirates
Midfielders
Teboho MokoenaMamelodi Sundowns FCThalente MbathaOrlando PiratesJayden AdamsMamelodi Sundowns FCYaya SitholeCD TondelaThemba ZwaneMamelodi Sundowns FC
Forwards
Relebohile MofokengUnion Saint-GilloiseOswin AppollisOrlando PiratesTshepang MoremiOrlando PiratesThapelo MasekoMamelodi Sundowns FCLyle FosterBurnley FCIqraam RaynersMamelodi Sundowns FCEvidence MakgopaOrlando Pirates
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders12 teams43.2%
Sleepers22 teams40.2%
Long shots12 teams6%Selected team
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 1943#9 | 3.1% | 10.2% | 17.6% | 30.3% | 52.2% | 90% | |
| 26 | 1723#32 | 1.6% | 5.6% | 10.3% | 19.3% | 36% | 68% | |
| 33 | 1680#34 | 1.3% | 4.7% | 8.9% | 16.9% | 32.1% | 61.9% | |
| 39 | 1559#44 | 0.6% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 9.6% | 19.5% | 40.4% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico42%31%19%90%
Korea Republic24%27%28%68%
Czechia21%25%29%62%
South Africa13%18%24%40%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%62%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%64%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%40%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%68%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.