Edson ÁlvarezProfileCaptain and midfield anchor
Mexico's captain gives the host team a high-floor defensive midfielder who can break counters and protect fragile knockout-game leads.
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotMexicoMEX
Rank#8baseline #8
Elo1943#9
Champion3.7%baseline 3.7%
Leader gap1.7%
Final11.7%baseline 11.7%
Group advance94.2%baseline 94.2%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 87Scenario 90.8
Defense+1.5
Base 87Scenario 88.5
Form0
Base 87Scenario 87
Player introductionsConnected squad notes for the selected team
Key players
Raúl JiménezProfileVeteran penalty-box finisher
Jiménez gives Mexico a proven striker profile, penalty-box timing, and a set-piece target when open-play chances dry up.
Santiago GimenezProfilePrime-age scoring threat
Gimenez gives the forward line a younger high-volume scorer who can stretch centre-backs and raise Mexico's finishing ceiling.
Guillermo OchoaProfileSixth-World-Cup goalkeeper
Ochoa's tournament experience gives Mexico a calm goalkeeper reference even when the minutes shift toward the next generation.
Luis ChávezProfileLeft-footed midfield passer
Chávez adds a left-footed passing range and direct free-kick threat that can change the model in tight group-stage matches.
Johan VásquezProfileEuropean-level centre-back
Vásquez brings Serie A defensive reps, aerial coverage, and cleaner buildup from the back line.
Full squad26
Goalkeepers
Raúl RangelDeportivo GuadalajaraCarlos AcevedoSantos LagunaGuillermo OchoaAEL Limassol
Defenders
Johan VásquezGenoa CFCCésar MontesLokomotiv MoscowLuis RomoDeportivo GuadalajaraMateo ChávezAZ AlkmaarJesús GallardoDeportivo TolucaIsrael ReyesCF AméricaJorge SánchezPAOK Thessaloniki
Midfielders
Edson ÁlvarezWest Ham UnitedÉrik LiraCD Cruz AzulLuis ChávezDynamo MoscowObed VargasAtlético de MadridOrbelín PinedaAEK AthensÁlvaro FidalgoReal Betis BalompiéGilberto MoraClub TijuanaBrian GutiérrezDeportivo Guadalajara
Forwards
Alexis VegaDeportivo TolucaCésar HuertaRSC AnderlechtRoberto AlvaradoDeportivo GuadalajaraSantiago GimenezAC MilanArmando GonzálezDeportivo GuadalajaraJulián QuiñonesAl-Qadsiah FCRaúl JiménezWolverhampton WanderersGuillermo MartínezUNAM Pumas
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams10.6%
Contenders12 teams43.5%Selected team
Sleepers22 teams40%
Long shots12 teams5.9%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 1943#9 | 3.7% | 11.7% | 19.7% | 33.2% | 56% | 94.2% | |
| 26 | 1723#32 | 1.6% | 5.6% | 10.4% | 19.5% | 36.5% | 68.9% | |
| 33 | 1680#34 | 1.3% | 4.8% | 9% | 17.1% | 32.6% | 62.8% | |
| 42 | 1559#44 | 0.5% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 7.6% | 15.8% | 33.6% |
Group stage matrix
Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico47%31%16%94%
Korea Republic22%28%30%69%
Czechia20%26%31%63%
South Africa11%15%23%34%
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%62%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%64%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain56%30%11%97%
Uruguay23%35%28%81%
Cabo Verde11%18%31%44%
Saudi Arabia10%17%29%41%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%68%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.